Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02a03adde1ec34279ffef1712b19aa317454e412422ba1fe31212168844cd706

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,345,675
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $874,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,345,675 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 543 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	66,350$3,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,154.28	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	40,550$3,353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,353.11	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	7c	39,141$2,828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,827.73	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	4c	28,312$1,068 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,068.11	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	17,047$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.95	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	11c	14,000$1,522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,522.27	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35b9…1350backed Yes	11c	12,374$1,344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,344.43	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	12,000$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.99	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	9c	11,485$1,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,018.61	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes	3c	10,120$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+83.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed Yes	0c	10,110$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.33	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	78c	9,987$7,741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,245.86	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	9,715$1,379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,379.16	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	5c	9,283$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.22	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	1c	9,111$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.43	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	18c	9,085$1,636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,636.01	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	12c	7,392$860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$859.67	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked Yes	3c	7,300$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.71	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+71%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	13c	7,119$955 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$955.33	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	1c	7,090$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.23	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	7,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3f…9708backed Yes	30c	6,603$2,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,007.84	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-71%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	16c	5,859$957 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$956.9	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	5,556$845 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$845.38	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	6c	5,274$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.93	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42f1…e5a1backed Yes	1c	5,128$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	73c	5,010$3,679 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,331.28	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x728d…116abacked Yes	32c	4,981$1,591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,591.44	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	4,832$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.46	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	4c	4,589$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.37	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb392…0b80backed Yes	21c	4,562$969 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$969.06	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42c…786bbacked Yes	2c	4,445$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.53	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.33per pick	27cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked No	79c	4,346$3,446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$899.71	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	38c	4,210$1,584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,583.86	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	4,140$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.98	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	25c	4,075$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$998.8	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	21c	4,000$860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$859.5	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	24c	3,950$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.48	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	3,856$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.49	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes	1c	3,750$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.99	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdafe…c673backed Yes	17c	3,600$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.57	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	20c	3,467$686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$686.1	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	3,397$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	1c	3,352$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.18	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	11c	3,342$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	10c	3,049$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.36	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	7c	3,009$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.78	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	6c	3,000$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	40c	2,994$1,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,198.67	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	22c	2,985$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.49	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	5c	2,978$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.94	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc289…f898backed Yes	28c	2,894$796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.94	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	2,819$2,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$679.14	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafcf…d662backed Yes	26c	2,755$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.64	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+46%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	6c	2,747$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.31	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	5c	2,711$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.26	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	2c	2,700$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.9	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	73c	2,700$1,958 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$741.49	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	16c	2,693$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.03	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	14c	2,629$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.67	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	28c	2,557$704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.04	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	6c	2,522$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4789…8ff5backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	22c	2,381$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.82	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	22c	2,372$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.85	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	73c	2,239$1,631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$607.66	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes	9c	2,200$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	3c	2,200$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	76c	2,130$1,621 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$509.06	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	2,102$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	2c	2,049$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.94	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a37…c99cbacked Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.11	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60d…4e95backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc2…208abacked Yes	27c	2,000$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8c…cf31backed No	73c	2,000$1,464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$536	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2fe…d85cbacked Yes	27c	2,000$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…fd04backed No	73c	2,000$1,464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$536	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	21c	2,000$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc43f…b0c8backed No	73c	2,000$1,462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$538	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb12…ec70backed Yes	27c	2,000$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	4c	2,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	78c	1,986$1,543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.32	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	11c	1,976$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.25	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa817…f9d6backed Yes	10c	1,963$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.72	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb1…d133backed Yes	27c	1,950$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d07…42c3backed No	73c	1,950$1,423 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$526.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	1,949$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.88	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes	12c	1,920$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1066…6075backed Yes	4c	1,900$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.3	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b97…c4a3backed Yes	3c	1,900$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.75	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	2c	1,900$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes	2c	1,900$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.79	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	10c	1,898$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.72	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d51…79a2backed Yes	27c	1,890$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.77	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24d6…6fb3backed No	73c	1,890$1,380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510.3	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	30c	1,885$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.34	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	14c	1,881$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.8	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed No	79c	1,875$1,474 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.45	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	1,859$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.47	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event