Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a335c31747754983ad2f9ae770178d2168fe55d3db223769f5810fcbce0d5d6

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $347,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $97,714

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,364 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	55,432$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.86	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	37,583$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.58	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	26,898$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.3	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	17,270$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.45	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,450$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.86	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	7,407$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.81	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	7,209$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.11	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	5,243$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,631$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.86	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	3,599$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b7…dcdcbacked Yes	1c	2,738$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,599$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,391$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	2c	2,249$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.14	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,727$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	1c	1,625$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.96	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	1,581$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.07	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	1c	1,507$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.51	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,444$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…c1d8backed Yes	1c	1,208$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6716…9e98backed Yes	1c	1,170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	1c	1,113$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.07	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	1c	859.45$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	859.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.24	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab6…f0e4backed Yes	1c	800$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	3c	499.74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c47…8598backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event