Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4646534ebb6bdbc1db6bb2053211721eb70fb01e4c6ce54c7f8dd67122c4947

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,232,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $845,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,232,686 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9a15…8393backed Yes	0c	81,531$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.37	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ac…f812backed Yes	0c	29,155$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dad…5c37backed Yes	4c	23,092$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	22,418$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.72	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	22,351$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	5c	16,183$754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$754.33	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	15,474$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.47	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	2c	11,970$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.74	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df4…d1a1backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	0c	10,494$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,301$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.61	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	5,993$778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$777.69	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	5,779$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.97	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0155…a6ffbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	4,994$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	1c	4,388$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.71	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	4,345$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.41	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	16c	3,943$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.67	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	3,481$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.57	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,419$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.16	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.06	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	8c	3,200$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	14c	3,038$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.8	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	26c	3,033$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.44	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	2c	3,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	3,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	2c	2,895$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.97	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes	1c	2,730$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	2c	2,700$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	11c	2,690$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.23	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	7c	2,552$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.77	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	9c	2,400$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,395$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.98	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	14c	2,350$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.99	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes	9c	2,307$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.6	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	2,251$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	9c	2,055$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.95	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	6c	2,032$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.43	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	10c	2,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	16c	1,819$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.84	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	6c	1,800$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	13c	1,698$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3f…9708backed Yes	18c	1,698$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.19	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-71%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	1,652$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.84	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	9c	1,553$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.77	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	6c	1,550$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.4	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	1,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa1…b815backed Yes	6c	1,500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df7…1c04backed Yes	3c	1,483$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.26	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	15c	1,379$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.55	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	13c	1,364$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	6c	1,352$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.68	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	18c	1,261$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.77	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	1,231$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.09	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,175$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,144$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.99	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	2c	1,100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29f5…78b7backed Yes	1c	1,100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	1,091$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	14c	1,070$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.8	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	9c	1,050$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.53	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	9c	1,020$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.2	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	8c	1,001$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.5	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	15c	999.99$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	11c	999.98$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	15c	997.38$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	11c	960.98$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.05	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	16c	889.97$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	5c	856.56$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.73	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	12c	840$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	13c	838.46$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	13c	831$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.46	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	3c	814.52$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.83	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	783.45$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.71	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c38…919dbacked Yes	7c	725$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.45	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	14c	699.99$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e80…30e2backed Yes	2c	674.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.22	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	8c	649.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	7c	634.94$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.67	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	628.06$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.53	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb392…0b80backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	12c	600$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bfb…7632backed Yes	13c	600$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-35%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	2c	600$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd3…3a42backed Yes	13c	570.83$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked Yes	17c	538.96$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	13c	506.47$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84b9…8880backed Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	11c	499.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	9c	499.96$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event