Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2abfa485e413a2a6c754911ef612e02fe96bc1010da087bb5b0b6127bebe4a8d

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,672,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,233,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,672,900 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 531 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbd53…4d7ebacked Yes	1c	41,800$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.84	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c14…bd82backed Yes	2c	41,800$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$783	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf944…c249backed Yes	2c	28,900$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	19c	21,610$4,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,116.04	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f38…e8f9backed Yes	2c	20,900$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	6c	19,178$1,059 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,058.58	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	1c	17,000$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	14c	15,038$2,168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,168.25	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	14,018$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.37	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4228…e9d8backed Yes	2c	14,000$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7c…3ecabacked Yes	2c	13,930$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.8	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	8c	13,686$1,094 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,093.89	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	13,111$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.33	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	10,949$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.45	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3922…0670backed Yes	2c	10,445$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	10,442$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.24	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	10,332$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.88	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3924…e49bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	9c	9,311$804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$804.29	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	22c	9,310$2,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,038.44	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	9,057$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.48	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed No	75c	7,442$5,582 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,860.56	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	17c	7,392$1,231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,230.94	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	7,275$974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$973.9	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	12c	6,930$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855.42	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed Yes	3c	6,850$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.05	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	6,647$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.24	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	6,471$939 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$938.68	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	3c	6,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.63	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	5,926$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.44	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No	77c	5,907$4,527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,380.13	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	3c	5,891$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.23	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	13c	5,489$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.56	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	5,274$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.32	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	4c	5,185$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.71	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	5,132$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.34	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b24…c4bebacked Yes	24c	5,104$1,228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,228.31	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	59cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	5c	5,003$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.34	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3f…9708backed Yes	21c	4,651$971 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$970.57	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-71%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	15c	4,610$704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$703.6	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	16c	4,369$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.96	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	10c	4,357$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.63	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	4,261$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.29	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	4,185$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.5	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	12c	4,123$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.74	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	78c	4,065$3,174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$890.91	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	10c	4,010$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	13c	4,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	2c	3,830$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.52	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	5c	3,762$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.7	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	3,656$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.85	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	36c	3,629$1,307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,307.1	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	21c	3,590$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.29	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	18c	3,521$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650.06	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	75c	3,480$2,610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$869.59	186	76.9%143 W · 43 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	3c	3,459$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.25	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	7c	3,444$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.67	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ad…1ebbbacked No	73c	3,381$2,479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$901.69	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…54c9backed Yes	5c	3,339$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.9	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafcf…d662backed Yes	12c	3,283$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+46%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	12c	3,199$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.82	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	17c	3,119$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	17c	3,044$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.35	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	11c	3,000$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	2,972$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.74	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	13c	2,807$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.5	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdafe…c673backed Yes	7c	2,790$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.7	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	12c	2,451$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.34	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	3c	2,433$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.85	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	8c	2,393$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.04	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	9c	2,363$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.02	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4a…4b36backed Yes	20c	2,298$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455.86	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	5c	2,229$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.8	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	18c	2,172$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.38	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes	7c	2,164$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes	10c	2,109$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	+17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes	9c	2,095$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.92	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes	40c	2,093$845 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$845.06	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	11c	2,040$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.56	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	2,021$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.16	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	2,021$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	16c	2,005$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.2	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes	15c	2,001$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.7	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	70c	1,925$1,355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$570.59	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	17c	1,897$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.48	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	17c	1,878$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.51	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	3c	1,857$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.49	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a15…8393backed Yes	13c	1,784$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.2	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked No	67c	1,774$1,185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$589.68	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	12c	1,748$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	9c	1,728$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.5	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f24…c264backed Yes	7c	1,726$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.86	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25b5…15f3backed Yes	21c	1,723$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.37	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	12c	1,719$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.39	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	1,700$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.1	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	10c	1,700$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes	6c	1,696$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.88	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…a85bbacked Yes	4c	1,692$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.32	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b02…7fbdbacked Yes	16c	1,613$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event