Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x591429e105c0f49aaf3a2d4d23586ec278eff3dcbe4c37bf71793740f0ab8607

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,088,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $870,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,088,352 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	48,827$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.12	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	11,606$647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$647.2	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	2c	10,515$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	10,467$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.12	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	5c	10,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	9,099$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.49	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	7,565$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a15…8393backed Yes	2c	6,513$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	4c	6,387$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.35	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	6,112$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$820.48	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	3c	6,105$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.53	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	3c	6,000$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a4a…4b36backed Yes	7c	5,460$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	2c	5,300$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.56	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6dad…5c37backed Yes	19c	5,197$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d40…aabcbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	4,953$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	4,788$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.02	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	4,735$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.46	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	5c	4,622$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.01	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	13c	4,557$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.44	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	4,414$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.03	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	3c	4,255$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	3,950$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.64	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	12c	3,699$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.93	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,635$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	3,508$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.97	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes	0c	3,335$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	7c	3,197$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.99	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	9c	3,028$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	16c	3,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	9c	2,869$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.27	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	2,800$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	12c	2,643$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.97	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ac…f812backed Yes	4c	2,563$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	6c	2,531$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.95	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…a8ecbacked Yes	4c	2,486$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.68	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	2,420$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.98	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	2,368$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.69	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	11c	2,341$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	11c	2,336$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.09	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	2,303$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.57	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	7c	2,168$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.64	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	2,161$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.51	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	6c	2,123$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.05	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked Yes	9c	2,111$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	2,047$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.79	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	10c	2,000$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.64	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	5c	1,995$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	1,965$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.96	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	9c	1,895$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.97	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	14c	1,781$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.17	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	10c	1,757$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	11c	1,697$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.28	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	4c	1,691$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.5	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes	12c	1,611$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-6.1wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	6c	1,574$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.15	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,524$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.3	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	9c	1,487$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.87	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	2c	1,351$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.32	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	4c	1,288$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	18c	1,266$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.97	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	5c	1,251$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.04	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eea…726bbacked Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked Yes	8c	1,197$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e84…d31cbacked Yes	2c	1,119$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3f…9708backed Yes	18c	1,115$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.56	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-71%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	15c	1,070$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.5	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	6c	1,027$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.65	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	3c	1,006$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.77	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	7c	1,003$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.74	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec1…3f21backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	3c	999.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	11c	999.62$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.45	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	977.2$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.74	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	16c	948.64$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	3c	948.27$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.43	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b7…dcdcbacked Yes	12c	924.48$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.55	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	2c	910.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.23	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e68…68ffbacked Yes	17c	870.44$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.28per pick	40cpaid	-85.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	12c	862.03$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes	2c	850$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	5c	824.2$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.52	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	6c	810.45$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.22	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	13c	805.13$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.39	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6620…75dabacked Yes	11c	799.99$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	11c	750.16$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.5	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c38…919dbacked Yes	9c	750$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd3…3a42backed Yes	18c	733.75$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	4c	719.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.66	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	718.27$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.64	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked Yes	15c	717.15$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb0…94fbbacked Yes	5c	716.22$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	7c	700$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	2c	700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event