Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf445a24e8259f33334f87c133b7eb59646b66c38b7d6dbaa32723720bf43a391

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,041,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $545,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,041,835 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	168,859$2,413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,413.47	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	74,229$6,419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,419.03	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	31,401$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$762.8	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	27,818$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.86	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	22,018$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.03	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	17,453$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.66	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	16,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	14,893$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.39	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	14,334$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.41	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	12,896$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.12	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	0c	10,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	5c	9,825$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.57	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	1c	9,300$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.1	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	4c	8,808$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.2	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	0c	8,166$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	3c	7,890$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.18	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	7,618$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	7,488$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.68	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	0c	7,342$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.37	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes	21c	7,324$1,502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,501.61	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	6,901$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.83	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63e3…7d85backed Yes	2c	6,575$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	3cpaid	+889.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	15c	5,555$839 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$838.8	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	3c	5,553$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.61	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	3c	5,282$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.54	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeceb…8d0dbacked No	75c	5,046$3,784 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,261.48	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	4,953$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.63	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	4,703$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.17	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	5c	4,533$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.31	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	6c	4,527$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.03	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	2c	4,102$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.68	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	3,955$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.57	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	4c	3,672$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	6c	3,606$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.52	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	4c	3,422$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.73	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	3,238$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.14	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes	1c	3,015$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.23	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	2,944$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.79	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	2,696$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.37	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	2,626$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.88	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	2,600$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	12c	2,575$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc727…2b13backed Yes	1c	2,400$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.05	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	6c	2,343$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	2,252$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	16c	2,250$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.44	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	7c	2,245$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.56	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	9c	2,188$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.08	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8a…ec4cbacked Yes	3c	2,122$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.09	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+104%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	2,115$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.57	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	2,092$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.02	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked Yes	10c	2,090$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8458…17eabacked Yes	9c	2,083$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.54	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	5c	2,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.05	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	2,000$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	8c	2,000$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.98	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	9c	1,995$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.63	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	1c	1,926$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.08	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	4c	1,922$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.96	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	5c	1,872$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.8	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	1c	1,847$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	7c	1,826$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.11	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes	5c	1,755$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.74	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25af…298bbacked Yes	19c	1,700$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.93	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	2c	1,666$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.94	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,625$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.1	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd709…9286backed Yes	5c	1,526$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.95	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	15c	1,500$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.63	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x429b…2986backed Yes	5c	1,465$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.72	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd280…e66cbacked Yes	8c	1,460$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.24	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	2c	1,411$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	1,400$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.38	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,397$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.89	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	3c	1,306$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.74	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,217$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	1,175$929 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.47	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	5c	1,160$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.16	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	20c	1,150$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.05	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	1,142$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	1c	1,101$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	9c	1,099$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…7074backed Yes	7c	1,068$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.62	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	1,064$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.31	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	5c	1,038$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.13	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	4c	1,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.09	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe342…b692backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.88	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	76c	1,000$757 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.7	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	99	23.2%23 W · 76 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	5c	999.98$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	5c	958.82$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.71	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	6c	956.23$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	8c	951.69$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.77	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	933.89$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.41	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	900$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72e5…4690backed Yes	8c	861.46$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	5c	824.58$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.8	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc296…0f22backed Yes	7c	805.21$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.83	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event