Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf9e809d742316f8ded3d0046fd0ddd277a06d894cb075ea997de4103d16d607

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $499,977
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $197,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $499,977 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	149,793$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.36	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	18,888$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	18,049$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.74	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	16,518$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.81	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	16,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	12,896$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.47	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,330$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	9,537$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.3	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	6,350$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	6,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	5,976$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes	5c	4,267$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,778$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.71	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,601$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.73	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	3,441$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.72	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	3,137$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.54	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60d…4e95backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	3,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	1c	2,935$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.57	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,611$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.43	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	1c	2,557$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.98	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,497$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.46	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,492$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.67	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	3c	2,459$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.96	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	1c	2,358$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	2,310$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	2,245$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.04	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	1c	2,064$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	2,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a0d…54f7backed Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b97…c4a3backed Yes	1c	1,940$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	1,923$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	2c	1,846$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.7	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	1c	1,556$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	1,500$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.79	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	1,496$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.49	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,481$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.89	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	1,250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.14	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	1c	1,233$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	1c	1,174$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,004$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.61	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x429b…2986backed Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	4c	847.38$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.44	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	1c	819.21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	1c	731.59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Yes	3c	469$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a42…6aa2backed Yes	3c	444.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7616…c89abacked Yes	3c	441.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event