Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcbde2dce13f472b3e43683225d416cf2089d5fd51fb4cc8389e9b42c7e26e49

Rebuilt 33 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,118,988
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $748,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,118,988 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes	0c	157,083$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	58,360$776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$776.23	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	29,407$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.43	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	27,195$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.39	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	22,000$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	12,035$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.75	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed20…84f1backed Yes	0c	10,677$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	10,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	13c	9,022$1,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,202.9	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc736…1fc2backed Yes	0c	8,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	47	31.9%15 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+75.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	1c	8,108$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.27	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	0c	8,046$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.85	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,066$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	6,615$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.82	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	6,466$832 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$832.28	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	2c	6,208$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.96	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	16c	6,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$959.99	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	10c	5,590$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.94	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3592…c81abacked Yes	0c	5,341$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+11%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	5,284$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.13	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25af…298bbacked Yes	14c	5,272$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741.19	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	5,200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	5,154$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.26	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c8a…ec4cbacked Yes	11c	5,037$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.79	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+104%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	15c	4,954$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741.73	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	8c	4,899$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.29	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	4,821$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.03	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	4,530$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.09	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes	11c	4,379$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.08	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	4,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	0c	3,800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	8c	3,785$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.84	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	3,049$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.16	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	3,011$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.22	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,891$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.58	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	2,865$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.52	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,645$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.7	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed Yes	15c	2,600$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.17	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	2,484$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.37	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	8c	2,390$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.8	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	2,314$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	12c	2,293$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.85	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	16c	2,100$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	10c	2,059$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.07	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	6c	2,033$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked Yes	14c	2,016$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	7c	1,957$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.68	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	7c	1,874$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.36	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	7c	1,774$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.43	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	10c	1,768$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.24	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	6c	1,767$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.3	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	15c	1,758$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	11c	1,691$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.71	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	5c	1,652$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	12c	1,574$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.83	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	10c	1,508$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.67	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	7c	1,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ef…c25dbacked Yes	11c	1,412$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.88	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	17c	1,391$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.44	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f24…c264backed Yes	15c	1,346$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.06	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,326$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.94	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	1,320$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	6c	1,302$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.89	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	18c	1,290$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.42	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	14c	1,271$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.6	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa550…c82ebacked Yes	13c	1,267$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.09	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	11c	1,173$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.51	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd709…9286backed Yes	14c	1,123$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.08	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x703f…2921backed Yes	14c	1,103$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	11c	1,031$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.42	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x429b…2986backed Yes	10c	1,002$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.91	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	14c	1,002$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.98	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	14c	1,000$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	999.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	9c	999.97$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	12c	971.61$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.59	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	11c	958.07$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.97	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	12c	935.13$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.9	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	10c	921.87$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.47	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	4c	853.65$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.06	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	8c	849.99$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes	4c	846.17$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.08	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	5c	838.34$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.15	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a97…f9dfbacked Yes	7c	806.6$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.92	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes	10c	800$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	132	9.8%13 W · 119 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	7c	799.99$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	10c	799.98$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x570c…3750backed Yes	13c	787.15$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72e5…4690backed Yes	8c	776.45$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	13c	772.95$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	768.06$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	11c	765.19$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.17	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes	11c	751.5$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.67	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x937a…721ebacked Yes	19c	739.26$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.46	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d3…52b9backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	12c	711.6$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event