Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53fd6e9555f6a4d8f1489c00042dc20dbfd247d6dafbd5e6fdabe29555512ad6

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $550,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $336,785

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $550,419 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	33,330$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	22,879$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.96	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	14,822$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.2	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	12,220$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.34	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…298bbacked Yes	10c	11,761$1,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,124.05	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes	11c	10,000$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	8,543$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.17	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	7,539$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.51	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	7c	6,799$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.58	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	7c	5,580$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.82	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	5,429$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	2c	5,226$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.78	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	4,663$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.35	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	4,350$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.43	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa550…c82ebacked Yes	4c	4,284$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	4,000$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.88	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	5c	3,794$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.65	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	3,485$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.7	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	3,216$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.88	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	7c	2,967$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.41	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed Yes	4c	2,626$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.15	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	2,567$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	2,444$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.92	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	6c	2,275$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.64	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391a…475fbacked Yes	0c	2,221$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc17…d1aebacked Yes	2c	2,215$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.91	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	2,200$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.96	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	2,001$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.3	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	5c	2,000$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	7c	1,891$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.13	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	3c	1,880$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.18	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	5c	1,833$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.66	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	7c	1,800$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.5	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	1,779$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.31	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	6c	1,695$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.09	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63e3…7d85backed Yes	2c	1,677$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	3cpaid	+889.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a97…f9dfbacked Yes	4c	1,633$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.33	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,569$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.51	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c8a…ec4cbacked Yes	10c	1,509$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.18	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+104%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	4c	1,500$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	6c	1,356$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.86	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	6c	1,300$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.4	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	1,283$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.47	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	9c	1,200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	3c	1,195$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.32	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24a5…ab7dbacked Yes	5c	1,193$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.37	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	7c	1,188$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.35	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,167$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.98	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95bd…0839backed Yes	6c	1,149$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.11	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	5c	1,091$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08e0…592fbacked Yes	2c	1,080$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd709…9286backed Yes	10c	1,056$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.17	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6388…7622backed Yes	11c	1,050$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.5	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	9c	1,041$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.75	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	6c	1,007$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	1,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.3	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x429b…2986backed Yes	11c	1,000$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.95	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	5c	999.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes	3c	999.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	132	9.8%13 W · 119 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	6c	999.96$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	11c	999.85$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.98	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	3c	976.62$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.76	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	11c	959.09$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.5	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0ff…5e40backed Yes	2c	938.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	4c	920.74$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.33	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	8c	916.33$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	7c	849.98$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.95	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	6c	843.91$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.3	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f96…e6a2backed Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+125.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	6c	800$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.2	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	7c	799.41$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.17	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	721.71$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.96	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	692.49$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.74	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	8c	660.42$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.19	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	11c	631.73$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.86	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb64e…3c0abacked Yes	8c	599.98$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-49%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	7c	596.9$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.33	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46fc…8f78backed Yes	12c	583.33$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	12c	583.33$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bd3…3a42backed Yes	2c	565.28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	7c	533$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.56	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	7c	530.64$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	11c	523.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.08	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	7c	523.67$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.11	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec1…3f21backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7137…20cabacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	4c	499.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	10c	499.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	8c	499.81$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.84	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	8c	497.94$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	9c	496.76$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.04	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	6c	490.95$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	8c	476.86$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…7074backed Yes	6c	473.95$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.18	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	7c	445.6$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.71	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4703…ce7fbacked Yes	5c	439.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event