Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d87caff3f4d1cb2f3c028d1cdf4da96eec49030abd7568de65f73014811dac2

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $434,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $154,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $434,419 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	188,964$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.93	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	0c	20,270$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.54	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	14,642$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.01	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	12,908$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	12,879$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.57	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	7,328$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.79	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes	2c	5,401$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	5,153$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	0c	3,337$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,491$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	1c	1,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x703f…2921backed Yes	1c	1,461$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	1,250$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.73	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event