Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08bfe16c9580429a46388157d1ee7c9e4b90c37b1f3b158e2d26f3199b9a73e7

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $649,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $311,891

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $649,602 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	64,931$3,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,154.2	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	60,284$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.5	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	48,045$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.03	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	13,824$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.3	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	12,896$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.36	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	11,814$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.04	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	3c	10,438$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.22	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	2c	9,500$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.32	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	9,125$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.16	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	0c	8,100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	8,012$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.81	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	6,876$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.04	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	5,018$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.73	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	5,011$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.31	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	4,786$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.33	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,932$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes	9c	3,545$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	3,409$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.31	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	2c	3,202$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.72	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	2c	3,034$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.39	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	2,966$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	2c	2,900$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.72	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,788$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	2,750$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,738$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.04	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,628$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.84	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,518$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.6	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	7c	2,508$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.92	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	4c	2,437$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.4	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	2,400$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.85	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa110…78fabacked Yes	1c	2,300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	106	31.1%33 W · 73 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6124…204fbacked Yes	1c	2,191$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+160.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70be…2c90backed Yes	5c	2,160$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	2,144$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	6c	2,054$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.7	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	4c	2,035$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.88	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.23	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	2,000$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	2c	1,976$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.37	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,902$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.96	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	1,900$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	2c	1,701$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.19	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	6c	1,500$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	1,463$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.68	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	8c	1,294$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.11	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	1,236$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,234$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.2	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ed…9374backed Yes	6c	1,203$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.39	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	5c	1,200$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	2c	1,177$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19cb…a867backed Yes	2c	1,176$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.18per pick	18cpaid	+100%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	2c	1,143$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.29	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	1,110$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.82	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes	2c	1,090$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	9c	1,058$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.17	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	5c	1,055$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,016$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a0d…54f7backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	6c	1,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	83	14.5%12 W · 71 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…efe1backed Yes	2c	999.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	52	17.3%9 W · 43 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	2c	999.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdc…13bcbacked Yes	5c	995.69$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	987.29$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.98	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	981.13$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.68	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	2c	900$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x429b…2986backed Yes	5c	806.17$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.41	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5aa…c200backed Yes	1c	799.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	158	20.9%33 W · 125 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	3c	799.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…52b5backed Yes	3c	794.15$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	3c	779.5$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.56	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	5c	774.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	4c	756.08$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	9c	751.85$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	8c	748.73$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.48	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe845…9fd8backed Yes	7c	717.49$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	4c	703.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	678.71$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd280…e66cbacked Yes	6c	667.19$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.02	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	612.08$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.17	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60d…4e95backed Yes	4c	599.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	3c	532.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	3c	502$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	7c	499.45$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.71	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a97…f9dfbacked Yes	4c	447.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	4c	426.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x026d…c112backed Yes	6c	407.08$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.74	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-87%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	5c	399.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae8…0e50backed Yes	8c	362.03$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	3c	357.89$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	5c	354.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.27	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…7074backed Yes	4c	340.52$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3333…6d86backed Yes	6c	318.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	75	16%12 W · 63 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event