Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8a05c46d79128033c73963bf128e3f5fc0d2dbd74781368d2318eab7286c704

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $608,474
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $452,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $608,474 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90c9…8dd5backed Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	41,565$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.48	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	33,330$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes	0c	28,658$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.66	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	11,355$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	10,253$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,888$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	4,159$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	6c	4,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.99	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,329$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.92	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76f8…e996backed Yes	1c	2,030$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	3c	2,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,909$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.58	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	5c	1,500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	1,433$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.89	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	1,395$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff6…d728backed Yes	7c	1,363$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.42	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	1c	1,347$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.52	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,313$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.67	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf86…7d31backed Yes	9c	1,130$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+3.8wins	+0.17per pick	10cpaid	+196.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	1,115$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.03	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	9c	1,100$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,004$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.32	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	999.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f18…5515backed Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	899.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.3	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	855.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.04	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	2c	844.12$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	800$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ef…c25dbacked Yes	11c	779.99$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.8	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	9c	732.98$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.32	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	7c	638.89$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df2…a79abacked Yes	6c	622.21$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	599.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	548.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	547.87$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.46	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84b9…8880backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	8c	499.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c47…8598backed Yes	4c	409.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	8c	405.91$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	7c	399.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	10c	341.6$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	10c	318.01$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.01	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	6c	309.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	8c	308.4$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.75	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e80…30e2backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad3…0bc9backed Yes	7c	257.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.05	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.15per pick	13cpaid	+81.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bae…5199backed Yes	8c	200.14$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.78	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7336…1f7bbacked Yes	11c	199.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	10c	199.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d9…8564backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a25…0eecbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event