Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8cc0c6c5c45efe184ee892eb46a40d97cac6cbc8d42300305bfdefe7227559e

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $556,903
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $207,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $556,903 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	104,798$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.35	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	45,526$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.2	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	28,888$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	16,000$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.67	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	15,502$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.68	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	12,896$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.42	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	11,830$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.66	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	11,209$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.15	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dad…5c37backed Yes	13c	7,865$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	6,823$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.56	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	1c	6,737$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	6,629$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.86	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	5,212$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.27	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	5,064$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	4,840$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	4,414$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.69	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	4,220$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.57	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	3,663$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,120$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.28	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,102$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.52	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,948$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.38	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	2,700$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	4c	2,697$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.31	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	1c	2,402$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.94	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	2c	2,386$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.41	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	2,272$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.76	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	2,184$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	2c	2,155$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.47	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	2c	2,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	2,000$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	1c	1,993$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.92	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	1c	1,901$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.57	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	1,872$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.03	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,837$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.74	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	1c	1,815$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	4c	1,806$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.15	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,711$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.76	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	1,668$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	1,665$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,558$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	2c	1,500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.09	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	1,437$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.39	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	1c	1,377$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.28	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	2c	1,349$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,311$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.42	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x429b…2986backed Yes	2c	1,296$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.12	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	2c	1,253$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77ac…47c2backed Yes	7c	1,217$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.66	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	2c	1,203$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	2c	1,087$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae8…0e50backed Yes	3c	1,021$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	5c	1,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.26	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60d…4e95backed Yes	2c	999.95$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a0d…54f7backed Yes	1c	999.93$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcdc…13bcbacked Yes	3c	999.58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	1c	995.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	947.36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	3c	874.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecf2…c3b7backed Yes	2c	839.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	2c	799.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	722.22$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3333…6d86backed Yes	3c	655.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.88	75	16%12 W · 63 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	8c	620.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	2c	551.9$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	7c	510.04$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.08	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ca…c1d1backed Yes	2c	419.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7616…c89abacked Yes	4c	387.9$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Yes	6c	258.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	5c	225.79$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.72	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event