Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4351a94a36ea5907d25dfefb621cafd356ea10040d6e9edb626214e62187d8e

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $304,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $294,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,632 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	34,138$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.66	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	6c	3,569$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.83	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	2,796$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.69	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	2,500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2066…7841backed Yes	4c	2,010$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.4	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+376.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…d728backed Yes	5c	1,657$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.4	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	1,589$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.27	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,265$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.52	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f8…e996backed Yes	2c	1,240$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	7c	1,153$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.16	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,016$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.82	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	2c	998.43$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.99	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	2c	899.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	895.94$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.46	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	844.52$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.65	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	828.85$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.23	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	7c	824.59$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.72	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	717.58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.68	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	595.74$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	583.27$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	3c	555$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	549.93$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	6c	499.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	6c	499.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	480.36$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c47…8598backed Yes	4c	409.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	7c	399.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	7c	364$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.48	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	6c	333.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	6c	318.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.38	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	5c	313.94$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	8c	246.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	9c	223.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event