Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc618ae671d8c3b2a0f11aaa525cae129772c5ac5e65ab1b421f2dd723d0f9bfe

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $606,750
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $410,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $606,750 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	23,331$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	23,237$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.2	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…298bbacked Yes	4c	21,044$892 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$892.05	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	16,564$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.13	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	10,518$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.74	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	10,005$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.01	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63e3…7d85backed Yes	0c	9,994$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	3cpaid	+889.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	1c	8,000$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…d1aebacked Yes	0c	7,516$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	7,498$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.06	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	7,315$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.94	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	7,093$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.55	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes	2c	6,978$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.03	132	9.8%13 W · 119 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	5,669$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.44	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,531$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.88	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	5c	5,365$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.4	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	5c	5,318$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.79	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	2c	4,799$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.84	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	4,372$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,116$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.2	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeceb…8d0dbacked Yes	0c	3,745$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	4c	3,497$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.02	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	12c	3,482$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.78	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	5c	3,408$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.04	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,333$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.33	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	3c	3,197$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	3,133$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	3c	3,083$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed Yes	1c	2,600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,582$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.25	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ace…7636backed Yes	1c	2,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,496$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.52	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95bd…0839backed Yes	2c	2,118$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	2,096$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.94	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	4c	2,000$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.75	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	6c	2,000$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	3c	2,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	1,867$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.17	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	2c	1,800$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.83	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	1,766$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.86	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	4c	1,700$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	2c	1,694$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a97…f9dfbacked Yes	2c	1,668$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.23	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	11c	1,616$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.07	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x592c…3fb8backed Yes	1c	1,587$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,546$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.48	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc32…3290backed Yes	13c	1,483$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c8a…ec4cbacked Yes	12c	1,454$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.66	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+104%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,278$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.71	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	3c	1,209$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.21	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	9c	1,200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	3c	1,193$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.74	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	4c	1,163$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.26	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	3c	1,145$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.28	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	12c	1,110$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.64	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	10c	1,100$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	1,085$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.56	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	1,044$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	4c	1,015$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.83	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe60d…4e95backed Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	995.56$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.46	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes	3c	958.65$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-3.1wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	901.03$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.43	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	6c	802.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.06	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	3c	799.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.31	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f96…e6a2backed Yes	13c	778.65$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+125.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes	11c	776.26$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.31	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f18…5515backed Yes	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ef…c25dbacked Yes	12c	760$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.6	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	3c	713.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd709…9286backed Yes	4c	606.06$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.24	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	5c	592.38$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.75	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	13c	550.46$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	5c	522.18$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes	4c	519.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	10c	500.72$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.21	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	11c	500.38$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.23	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	3c	500.01$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.54	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e80…30e2backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…8880backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7137…20cabacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f3…4c06backed Yes	4c	464.59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4703…ce7fbacked Yes	3c	460.68$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	4c	455.05$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec34…d61ebacked Yes	11c	440.82$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cef…4017backed Yes	2c	433.48$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23a2…5643backed Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46fc…8f78backed Yes	13c	398.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	362.86$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.04	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes	9c	349.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	10c	318.01$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.61	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6388…7622backed Yes	12c	285.9$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.31	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d2…2628backed Yes	12c	250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	12c	202.15$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event