Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66e53e2fe718fe0a9bc903c30fc291b36202f94821f822779640b2052b19ba63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,428,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,428,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 1c | 25,707$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.48 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f4…425ebacked Yes | 0c | 23,199$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…ca20backed Yes | 0c | 20,265$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…3725backed Yes | 28c | 18,166$4,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,996.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca5…8ef3backed Yes | 0c | 17,605$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…3bd4backed Yes | 0c | 17,536$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b6…44dcbacked Yes | 0c | 17,536$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6c…44fdbacked Yes | 0c | 17,468$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17df…55bfbacked Yes | 0c | 17,468$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…c1e8backed Yes | 0c | 17,399$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…27c1backed Yes | 0c | 17,331$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x592a…f9d8backed Yes | 0c | 14,670$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c8…d69dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,670$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…6ec4backed Yes | 0c | 14,670$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b61…f9dfbacked Yes | 0c | 14,602$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…f599backed Yes | 0c | 14,534$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…53b0backed Yes | 0c | 14,534$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…b0f9backed Yes | 0c | 14,534$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2570…0649backed Yes | 0c | 14,534$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f2…fa83backed Yes | 0c | 14,534$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…aac7backed Yes | 0c | 14,465$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…39a7backed Yes | 0c | 11,736$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5a…9a5bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,736$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe054…9fffbacked Yes | 0c | 11,668$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…0c0bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,668$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…2255backed Yes | 0c | 11,668$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…afedbacked Yes | 0c | 11,668$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…234cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412b…8fa8backed Yes | 0c | 11,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1105backed Yes | 0c | 11,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…dad8backed Yes | 0c | 11,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…7edebacked Yes | 0c | 11,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…08b7backed Yes | 0c | 11,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…b3d7backed Yes | 0c | 11,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d24…008cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…a67cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…b2fabacked Yes | 0c | 11,531$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…ff69backed Yes | 0c | 11,531$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8baf…db12backed Yes | 0c | 11,531$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x484b…8956backed Yes | 0c | 11,463$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes | 0c | 10,889$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…1c82backed Yes | 0c | 6,923$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…e117backed Yes | 0c | 6,923$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…321bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,923$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…c639backed Yes | 0c | 6,923$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…f959backed Yes | 6c | 6,312$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea1…10e9backed Yes | 0c | 5,934$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 10c | 5,692$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…b321backed Yes | 10c | 4,771$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…d860backed Yes | 14c | 4,281$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,650$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 10c | 3,250$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.88 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 12c | 3,165$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…15f1backed Yes | 18c | 2,800$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed Yes | 10c | 2,709$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 6c | 2,352$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 2c | 2,125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,096$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,878$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f7…51bbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,763$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,443$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…7849backed Yes | 15c | 1,384$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…4464backed Yes | 12c | 1,329$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…b7dabacked Yes | 19c | 1,218$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…dcfbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,144$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 20c | 1,044$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbc…b977backed Yes | 25c | 1,019$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 9c | 972.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…7819backed Yes | 3c | 821.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…caf0backed Yes | 10c | 771.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0089…e693backed Yes | 13c | 740.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ee…b3fcbacked Yes | 11c | 730.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…43b7backed Yes | 23c | 659.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…3041backed Yes | 10c | 656.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +343.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cd…d1a6backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…c09cbacked Yes | 2c | 615.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 12c | 606.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…d6c4backed Yes | 9c | 602$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 20c | 584.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c5…a19ebacked Yes | 12c | 582.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629a…7d8cbacked Yes | 14c | 515.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed Yes | 17c | 506.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…5ad1backed Yes | 20c | 500.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad8…a95fbacked Yes | 11c | 466.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d14…a653backed Yes | 14c | 439.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 10c | 433.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Yes | 12c | 419.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153f…eaa1backed Yes | 23c | 409.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…474bbacked Yes | 16c | 395.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…35ebbacked Yes | 15c | 360.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…8b55backed Yes | 28c | 353.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…a880backed Yes | 7c | 335.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 333.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…93bdbacked Yes | 15c | 323.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8f…83f2backed Yes | 12c | 318$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb331…e001backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…2719backed Yes | 10c | 291.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…0d0ebacked Yes | 12c | 259.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 257.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024?this page
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?Yes won
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? No won
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.