Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39bdb149c17d848c0ce90e452822878287bcd576bac2c552aa33f5d96b9c501d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,469,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,700,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,469,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes | 0c | 41,259$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 35,677$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 21,667$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e87…823bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,081$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d24…008cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,570$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…d658backed Yes | 0c | 18,481$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3f…9d0abacked Yes | 0c | 16,464$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…486ebacked Yes | 0c | 16,184$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…b209backed Yes | 0c | 16,184$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…c9eabacked Yes | 0c | 15,864$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d64…82d7backed Yes | 0c | 15,864$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…afedbacked Yes | 0c | 15,864$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…de92backed Yes | 0c | 15,264$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…aac7backed Yes | 0c | 15,034$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15f…aebabacked Yes | 0c | 14,294$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…f599backed Yes | 0c | 13,975$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50cb…ed95backed Yes | 0c | 13,975$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8a…b0e0backed Yes | 0c | 13,567$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b6…44dcbacked Yes | 0c | 13,567$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7f…770abacked Yes | 0c | 13,424$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…de7fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,147$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…d0cebacked Yes | 0c | 12,827$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…dad8backed Yes | 0c | 12,508$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 0c | 11,999$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…de93backed Yes | 0c | 11,678$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e94…0889backed Yes | 0c | 11,588$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…e7c3backed Yes | 0c | 11,488$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…052dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,168$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…6ef4backed Yes | 0c | 11,089$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeac…0378backed Yes | 0c | 10,950$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9298…31ccbacked Yes | 0c | 10,938$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1105backed Yes | 0c | 10,849$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…36b8backed Yes | 0c | 10,849$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…27c1backed Yes | 0c | 10,530$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…e756backed Yes | 0c | 10,350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1089…6842backed Yes | 0c | 10,210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…7edebacked Yes | 0c | 10,210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…f56fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,069$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…ff69backed Yes | 0c | 10,019$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes | 0c | 7,775$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 6,688$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 5,492$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,480$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…3fffbacked Yes | 0c | 4,027$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 1c | 2,924$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 2,901$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 2,711$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 2c | 2,142$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf0…8fcabacked Yes | 7c | 1,964$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…8a2abacked Yes | 4c | 1,753$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…7ff4backed Yes | 3c | 1,741$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…e35ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,670$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 3c | 1,020$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…e248backed Yes | 1c | 850$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c4…dbb9backed Yes | 7c | 498.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked Yes | 4c | 407.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5053…2966backed Yes | 6c | 373.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…c1d4backed Yes | 3c | 368.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…9d07backed Yes | 4c | 281.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? this page
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?Yes won
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.