Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04719e4de4a13429ca9d7571c534e661b0450525d8bfdcd09e95d4fb45319381
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 1c | 24,994$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.57 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 16c | 12,962$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 4c | 11,081$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.31 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcead…06e7backed Yes | 0c | 11,055$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f6…382bbacked Yes | 50c | 4,871$2,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,411.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 4,674$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.75 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…66eabacked Yes | 24c | 4,402$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…d860backed Yes | 20c | 4,309$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…6788backed Yes | 1c | 3,937$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 20c | 3,483$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 19c | 2,446$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 2,314$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…b321backed Yes | 13c | 2,290$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…07dfbacked Yes | 48c | 2,204$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 2,193$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.72 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 4c | 2,001$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…3725backed Yes | 22c | 1,995$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 20c | 1,579$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 21c | 1,574$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 25c | 1,464$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…3ed4backed Yes | 41c | 1,341$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5d…0734backed Yes | 20c | 1,267$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…f585backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…fa8cbacked No | 66c | 1,217$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 3c | 1,178$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…7849backed Yes | 26c | 1,157$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2621…af21backed Yes | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 23c | 1,022$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 14c | 1,004$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.85 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…fce1backed Yes | 20c | 982.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…5865backed Yes | 22c | 956$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…b7dabacked Yes | 22c | 899.5$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed Yes | 18c | 878.3$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 877.8$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.13 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…d393backed Yes | 23c | 847.64$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 12c | 837.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +154.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a6…9347backed Yes | 31c | 788.65$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 27c | 749.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 22c | 731.1$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdad8…a95fbacked Yes | 28c | 712.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 7c | 709.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…dcfbbacked Yes | 28c | 707.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6e…adc5backed Yes | 43c | 695.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…b4e3backed Yes | 39c | 647.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbc…b977backed Yes | 23c | 640.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…ee0ebacked Yes | 2c | 626.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 21c | 606.79$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…82f9backed Yes | 24c | 594.54$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8335…45b9backed Yes | 2c | 593.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 21c | 592.66$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…7dd8backed Yes | 34c | 559.38$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x704c…ec39backed Yes | 9c | 537.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 19c | 517.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…d81abacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8f…83f2backed Yes | 20c | 493$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 22c | 486.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…c3f9backed Yes | 26c | 469.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8a…c394backed Yes | 9c | 466.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…e0f7backed Yes | 21c | 465.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…2719backed Yes | 23c | 443.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Yes | 23c | 431.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 21c | 428.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 24c | 413.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 410.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…d6c4backed Yes | 27c | 407.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06e…8a2dbacked Yes | 35c | 400.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…838bbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 25c | 399.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…40dbbacked Yes | 30c | 388.72$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f7…51bbbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…17e4backed No | 73c | 381.94$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…91a3backed Yes | 28c | 361.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6d79backed Yes | 30c | 356.62$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 353.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e8…e270backed Yes | 4c | 346$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Yes | 29c | 344$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…3904backed Yes | 34c | 343.21$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…92cabacked Yes | 27c | 338.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 21c | 329$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 328.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…d439backed Yes | 25c | 327.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…947bbacked Yes | 26c | 326.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1882…6974backed Yes | 31c | 318.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb331…e001backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…fd6dbacked Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed Yes | 23c | 299.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…ffb3backed Yes | 24c | 298.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…e129backed Yes | 31c | 292.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 18c | 289.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…3041backed Yes | 9c | 289$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +343.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…5672backed Yes | 18c | 285.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…dc01backed Yes | 8c | 280.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7426…9e9fbacked Yes | 30c | 266.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…e160backed Yes | 16c | 265$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…c56fbacked Yes | 8c | 256.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…11edbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 17c | 249.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…93bdbacked Yes | 25c | 235.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…004dbacked Yes | 21c | 235$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?this page
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?Yes won
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? No won
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.