Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdca85943cda4d8822e2277e8cdad22cd7a03d0383d0e517aa17ce0e3ee2c6115
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,055,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,055,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 83,743$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 13,938$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 2c | 12,134$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cf…4644backed Yes | 0c | 11,608$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27e…6b0bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,488$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4971backed Yes | 0c | 11,167$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb172…3495backed Yes | 0c | 9,871$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…dfc2backed Yes | 0c | 9,490$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…5986backed Yes | 0c | 9,430$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…5ae6backed Yes | 0c | 7,993$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…9708backed Yes | 0c | 7,873$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…7aaebacked Yes | 0c | 7,873$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…cd8dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,813$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d03…c409backed Yes | 0c | 7,813$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d8…93eabacked Yes | 0c | 7,702$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…c541backed Yes | 0c | 7,612$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…5848backed Yes | 0c | 7,612$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,531$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb764…75fcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,492$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c7…e35dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…b7cfbacked Yes | 0c | 7,170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…5936backed Yes | 0c | 7,170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3429…2323backed Yes | 2c | 6,352$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…f5a7backed Yes | 0c | 5,995$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd34…1052backed Yes | 0c | 5,995$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad8…635ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,995$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…6e00backed Yes | 0c | 5,995$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…2b7cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,995$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…3de5backed Yes | 0c | 5,935$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…49f2backed Yes | 0c | 5,935$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…6875backed Yes | 0c | 5,935$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe6…197abacked Yes | 0c | 5,935$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d1…341abacked Yes | 0c | 5,935$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aad…e205backed Yes | 0c | 5,875$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…8bd6backed Yes | 0c | 5,875$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf8…d737backed Yes | 0c | 5,613$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…222cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,613$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…e24dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,613$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…2518backed Yes | 0c | 5,613$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…dc73backed Yes | 0c | 5,613$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678f…366ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,613$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…8405backed Yes | 0c | 5,553$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd329…aa36backed Yes | 0c | 5,553$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…13e2backed Yes | 0c | 5,553$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d85…106bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,553$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…961abacked Yes | 0c | 5,553$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 5,529$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…262abacked Yes | 0c | 5,493$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…35ebbacked Yes | 2c | 3,611$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,396$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 2c | 3,204$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333b…33febacked Yes | 1c | 2,978$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 0c | 2,532$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261d…e085backed Yes | 2c | 2,185$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8908…714bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,414$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,163$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,019$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked Yes | 3c | 999.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…9d07backed Yes | 3c | 931$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…3041backed Yes | 1c | 900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +343.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…855fbacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 2c | 621.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2267…11ffbacked Yes | 2c | 590$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…3117backed Yes | 4c | 583.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 3c | 579$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked Yes | 3c | 449.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 390.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024?this page
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?Yes won
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? No won
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.