TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,311,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$199,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,311,393 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b63…eea8backed Yes0c62,110$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9484…de92backed Yes0c54,312$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab6c…44fdbacked Yes0c46,583$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5a…9a5bbacked Yes0c46,583$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeac…0378backed Yes0c46,514$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e94…0889backed Yes0c38,853$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f6d…e5adbacked Yes0c38,785$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e66…e756backed Yes0c38,785$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ea…27c1backed Yes0c38,785$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8263…c1e8backed Yes0c31,123$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcee…08b7backed Yes0c31,123$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f4…425ebacked Yes0c31,123$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d7…4762backed Yes0c31,123$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a9…d658backed Yes0c31,055$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a9…ca20backed Yes0c31,055$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc6…53b0backed Yes0c31,055$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…de7fbacked Yes0c30,987$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf15f…aebabacked Yes0c30,987$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d24…008cbacked Yes0c30,987$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e9…d317backed Yes0c23,394$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c8…d69dbacked Yes0c23,325$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4456…8233backed Yes0c23,325$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1105backed Yes0c23,325$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x666f…b5eabacked Yes0c23,325$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd1…aac7backed Yes0c23,325$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd74d…052dbacked Yes0c23,325$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ca…7e92backed Yes0c23,325$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d64…82d7backed Yes0c23,325$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e13…c1f4backed Yes0c23,325$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72f2…fa83backed Yes0c23,325$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x484b…8956backed Yes0c23,257$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7476…6ef4backed Yes0c23,257$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8baf…db12backed Yes0c23,257$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e87…823bbacked Yes0c23,257$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7806…86b7backed Yes0c23,257$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a3…ce9cbacked Yes0c23,257$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be3…a67cbacked Yes0c23,257$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bc0…fa3abacked Yes0c23,257$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b02…3bd4backed Yes0c23,189$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81b6…44dcbacked Yes0c23,189$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe67c…c244backed Yes0c23,189$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe054…9fffbacked Yes0c23,189$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb4b…3725backed Yes8c17,114$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc1c…de93backed Yes0c15,596$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…3db8backed Yes0c15,596$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f1c…e7c3backed Yes0c15,596$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74da…4f3cbacked Yes0c15,596$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c13…2fdcbacked Yes0c15,596$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b61…f9dfbacked Yes0c15,596$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x592a…f9d8backed Yes0c15,528$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eef…486ebacked Yes0c15,528$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412b…8fa8backed Yes0c15,528$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd1a…f599backed Yes0c15,528$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecee…dad8backed Yes0c15,528$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50cb…ed95backed Yes0c15,528$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4cb…c9eabacked Yes0c15,528$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf673…afedbacked Yes0c15,528$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1752…f084backed Yes0c15,528$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa924…234cbacked Yes0c15,459$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc02c…910cbacked Yes0c15,459$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c8…36b8backed Yes0c15,459$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfca5…8ef3backed Yes0c15,459$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb815…0c0bbacked Yes0c15,459$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebb…b209backed Yes0c15,459$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1fe…c728backed Yes5c9,268$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c8…7d2fbacked Yes0c7,816$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x548b…79a4backed Yes0c7,353$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32fa…dda7backed Yes0c7,335$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b6…cbd3backed Yes0c6,268$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3f…36efbacked Yes0c6,229$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf844…a8aabacked Yes0c6,190$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes0c5,759$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4430238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes3c5,753$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-61.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x534b…b321backed Yes6c4,989$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.3650%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…15f1backed Yes5c4,973$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes1c4,920$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.63219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes7c4,269$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.561010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes3c4,000$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.42425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes2c3,747$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.72219.5%2 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-83.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes5c3,371$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.482733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes3c3,162$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4980%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e96…9971backed Yes3c2,503$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.880%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd411…a880backed Yes1c2,496$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c2,468$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6423846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x699d…4260backed Yes5c1,923$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a16…8447backed Yes1c1,900$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8a…e621backed Yes5c1,886$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f33…b7dabacked Yes11c1,838$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb189…35ebbacked Yes5c1,809$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes5c1,774$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.24812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x463e…664ebacked Yes5c1,657$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.42714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes4c1,486$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4164…d820backed Yes1c1,300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14af…376dbacked Yes18c1,142$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a31…fed2backed Yes4c1,112$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f38…dac6backed Yes18c999.7$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes2c944.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes9c940.04$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea8f…83f2backed Yes5c905$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…5ad1backed Yes3c866.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.