Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34e7851258699d34389c998eb0ac053080c0d6fed119ceaa61c4b72c55318a67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $308,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $321,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 762 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x534b…b321backed No | 72c | 6,260$4,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,477.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 6,034$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes | 52c | 5,889$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,808.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…d860backed Yes | 25c | 5,690$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,283.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 19c | 4,450$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 25c | 3,987$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,994.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…66eabacked Yes | 25c | 3,972$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,988.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 42c | 3,829$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 26c | 3,150$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,325.56 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 11c | 2,631$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 25c | 2,588$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.81 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4164…d820backed Yes | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 2,411$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.92 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5d…0734backed Yes | 26c | 2,376$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 21c | 2,187$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 76c | 2,140$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.28 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 2c | 2,057$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…3904backed Yes | 30c | 1,940$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 50c | 1,901$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.61 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 25c | 1,801$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 79c | 1,659$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.82 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 22c | 1,492$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.91 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 68c | 1,460$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 39c | 1,452$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked No | 32c | 1,401$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…ffb3backed Yes | 66c | 1,364$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe837…739fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,305$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…9b79backed No | 48c | 1,300$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…3ed4backed Yes | 46c | 1,185$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…3f29backed Yes | 21c | 1,181$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +372.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 29c | 1,164$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…d599backed No | 48c | 1,133$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed No | 10c | 1,100$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4956…9cb5backed No | 11c | 1,008$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…82f9backed Yes | 49c | 1,007$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Yes | 32c | 980.53$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959f…cc91backed Yes | 34c | 974.28$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…28d5backed Yes | 38c | 960.46$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…c09cbacked Yes | 63c | 947.29$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…4506backed No | 4c | 936.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…7849backed Yes | 29c | 826.55$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.55 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…e159backed Yes | 20c | 808.19$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 38c | 803.59$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.27 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed Yes | 37c | 801.52$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…2719backed Yes | 39c | 789.47$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 77c | 752.3$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…d393backed Yes | 24c | 720.69$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 17c | 653.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…1ee2backed Yes | 39c | 643.26$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…b630backed Yes | 31c | 642.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +221.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…3894backed Yes | 29c | 639.75$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +242.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fdcbbacked Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed Yes | 57c | 590.8$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 34c | 582.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 64c | 553.21$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f7…51bbbacked Yes | 38c | 526.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…3797backed No | 10c | 518.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8d…2ef7backed Yes | 20c | 512.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +412.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 71c | 488.59$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…07dfbacked Yes | 54c | 460.28$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2621…af21backed Yes | 24c | 457$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…d6c4backed Yes | 54c | 415.75$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 59c | 415$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.52 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e7…1af1backed Yes | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…cbc2backed Yes | 65c | 386.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 52c | 380.81$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Yes | 27c | 369.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 14c | 361.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 353.11$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…10dfbacked Yes | 45c | 349.44$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 10c | 348.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d34…8956backed Yes | 67c | 326$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a17…6506backed No | 33c | 326$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 31c | 325$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb898…d969backed Yes | 47c | 320.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…3041backed Yes | 17c | 310.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +343.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd275…fd4fbacked Yes | 37c | 308.85$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 31c | 306.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…a0e9backed Yes | 49c | 305.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +220.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb331…e001backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…4e3abacked Yes | 63c | 298$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fc…d3f5backed Yes | 65c | 298$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a62…51eebacked No | 37c | 298$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdee…b0d0backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 35c | 288.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 20cpaid | +514.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2eb…fea8backed No | 35c | 284$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…293dbacked Yes | 44c | 278.89$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed Yes | 18c | 278.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +457.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…8c05backed Yes | 24c | 278.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes | 30c | 276.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 36c | 276.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…be3ebacked No | 11c | 276$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 10c | 273.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…d439backed Yes | 36c | 269.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed No | 64c | 267.53$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5255…a516backed Yes | 37c | 267.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…a07bbacked Yes | 70c | 263.77$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?this page
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? No won
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.