Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4585d0aace66b55b7c8063c01eb58a471feaf99f0f390a33bcd2919faea4eac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,616,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $406,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,616,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3c8…7813backed Yes | 0c | 24,379$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…e20bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,869$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…048dbacked Yes | 0c | 23,258$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…9540backed Yes | 0c | 21,657$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…40fabacked Yes | 0c | 20,935$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…2ae7backed Yes | 0c | 20,735$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d2…51c1backed Yes | 0c | 20,425$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b800backed Yes | 0c | 20,213$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215f…0b1abacked Yes | 0c | 19,902$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d94…3e76backed Yes | 0c | 19,046$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c84…9fc2backed Yes | 0c | 17,890$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399a…f344backed Yes | 0c | 17,702$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…a9e3backed Yes | 0c | 17,691$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffa…0d0cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,479$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…9f98backed Yes | 0c | 17,379$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f70…df7bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,379$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7136…5dbabacked Yes | 0c | 17,080$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…cd45backed Yes | 0c | 17,080$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…af82backed Yes | 0c | 16,746$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3533…5cc8backed Yes | 0c | 16,746$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…b459backed Yes | 0c | 16,446$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…6de8backed Yes | 0c | 16,435$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…f3a3backed Yes | 0c | 16,024$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd304…8ee8backed Yes | 0c | 16,024$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…e117backed Yes | 0c | 15,924$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…72bfbacked Yes | 0c | 15,813$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…d8c9backed Yes | 0c | 15,701$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…555fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,068$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…4409backed Yes | 0c | 14,980$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf844…a8aabacked Yes | 0c | 14,868$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…1c82backed Yes | 0c | 14,669$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b91…d9eabacked Yes | 0c | 14,346$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c8…7d2fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,035$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71d…9c7abacked Yes | 0c | 14,035$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…3725backed Yes | 4c | 13,667$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae1…4c08backed Yes | 0c | 13,202$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32fa…dda7backed Yes | 0c | 13,202$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…d8debacked Yes | 0c | 12,979$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x618b…9a91backed Yes | 0c | 12,879$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b6…cbd3backed Yes | 0c | 12,779$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea1…10e9backed Yes | 0c | 12,679$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a4…da51backed Yes | 0c | 12,656$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…ae9dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,568$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…2feabacked Yes | 0c | 12,445$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b77…7678backed Yes | 0c | 12,357$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…3af0backed Yes | 0c | 12,046$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…d403backed Yes | 0c | 12,046$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…c04fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,823$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…321bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,811$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…0ed0backed Yes | 0c | 11,735$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…9688backed Yes | 0c | 11,723$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…c580backed Yes | 0c | 11,711$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…6e51backed Yes | 0c | 11,623$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966e…d4afbacked Yes | 0c | 11,523$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…f407backed Yes | 0c | 11,512$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…c1cebacked Yes | 0c | 11,512$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 4c | 11,244$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…4c31backed Yes | 0c | 11,090$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…e6babacked Yes | 0c | 10,990$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…d49dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,990$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…d1edbacked Yes | 0c | 10,990$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…36efbacked Yes | 0c | 10,779$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…6fd7backed Yes | 0c | 10,679$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4d…2374backed Yes | 0c | 10,579$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…5e64backed Yes | 0c | 10,379$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…710bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,245$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 8,427$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.09 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 3c | 6,580$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,942$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 4,873$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,454$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 3c | 4,081$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 2c | 4,014$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3429…2323backed Yes | 2c | 3,562$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 2c | 2,798$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…93bdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,454$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 1c | 2,413$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…e248backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,278$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…35ebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,261$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…376dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…7819backed Yes | 5c | 1,111$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…3041backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +343.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,020$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked Yes | 3c | 999.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…9013backed Yes | 3c | 923.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 1c | 668$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 613.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8908…714bbacked Yes | 2c | 520.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf0…8fcabacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 3c | 446.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes | 9c | 435.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1882…6974backed Yes | 5c | 375.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d0…4954backed Yes | 4c | 228.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…0f9cbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0142…582abacked Yes | 5c | 213.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…334abacked Yes | 10c | 205.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024?this page
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?Yes won
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? No won
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.