Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc3ced056057ade1ce3ce3b5abf393ecb583ba2c664bda180b628653ce49546f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $427,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $339,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4512…84f9backed Yes | 7c | 15,432$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 13c | 9,900$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 2c | 9,199$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.33 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes | 16c | 9,184$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…310bbacked Yes | 9c | 7,595$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 16c | 6,164$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…d860backed Yes | 15c | 5,919$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…a524backed Yes | 5c | 5,166$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes | 1c | 4,944$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…6744backed Yes | 1c | 4,866$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a0…a38cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,746$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 4,378$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 3,705$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.11 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…5f7bbacked Yes | 20c | 3,500$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…c622backed Yes | 13c | 3,196$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…45bfbacked Yes | 31c | 3,195$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…fa8cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,040$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 2c | 2,699$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 12c | 2,633$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.3 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d0…85f9backed Yes | 3c | 2,600$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…98d6backed Yes | 4c | 2,596$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,579$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb331…e001backed Yes | 13c | 2,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…838bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,488$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…6485backed Yes | 10c | 2,448$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…e159backed Yes | 14c | 2,236$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…4f92backed Yes | 12c | 2,221$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…41f9backed Yes | 8c | 2,196$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 13c | 2,171$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 15c | 2,008$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.29 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0216…7e71backed Yes | 3c | 2,003$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…3ce9backed Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…3c2ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…caf5backed Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…fe7fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbf…d57fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c3…5e1abacked Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe20…8aa5backed Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…cf6dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…ddadbacked Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…d413backed Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…1658backed Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d45…071cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aeb…b77fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7077…183ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,001$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea95…3d0cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,001$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…b2c1backed Yes | 3c | 2,001$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1095…1cfebacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…56d6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a9…cb2ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,901$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…826ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8206…7195backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…29a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d7…4801backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3c…7f90backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…3e43backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…f2f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…8294backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cca…3cf3backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…c20cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1e…3a44backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…d669backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aee…8eecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae38…f877backed Yes | 5c | 1,860$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…8c05backed Yes | 14c | 1,788$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2b…db29backed Yes | 3c | 1,732$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 30c | 1,645$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121a…ca6bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,460$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…3904backed Yes | 14c | 1,449$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…5f21backed Yes | 17c | 1,436$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…a50abacked Yes | 13c | 1,150$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06e…8a2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,131$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…83e0backed Yes | 3c | 1,102$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…48a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,097$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 28c | 1,095$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08d…2e58backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…6f01backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 5c | 999.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…f959backed Yes | 4c | 961.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af6…0dc9backed Yes | 9c | 788.66$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5d…0734backed Yes | 34c | 788.56$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4a…d38ebacked Yes | 13c | 779.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 9c | 770.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…19ccbacked Yes | 3c | 770.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5110…2695backed Yes | 13c | 757.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 11c | 752.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8f…83f2backed Yes | 14c | 738.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…ffb3backed Yes | 31c | 716.39$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 14c | 684.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cf7ebacked Yes | 3c | 669.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…bd73backed No | 56c | 666.88$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296a…fb2fbacked Yes | 6c | 620$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…857ebacked Yes | 2c | 611.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba2…4126backed Yes | 8c | 607.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0a…a897backed Yes | 21c | 602.17$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32d…0530backed Yes | 2c | 600.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…d084backed Yes | 9c | 585.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…4eefbacked Yes | 5c | 548.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1795…2e8fbacked Yes | 13c | 538.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…4843backed Yes | 4c | 531.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024?this page
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?Yes won
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.