Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacedef109bc86502ba263a768545470197634b12d7cd0eefddd7f306172b360c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $294,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 329 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 12c | 12,022$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 9c | 10,403$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes | 25c | 7,505$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 13c | 7,471$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…84f9backed Yes | 13c | 7,126$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 16c | 7,001$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2621…af21backed Yes | 10c | 6,412$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…3904backed Yes | 19c | 6,339$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 6c | 5,600$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…d860backed Yes | 16c | 5,069$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked Yes | 1c | 4,045$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 3,784$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.74 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 2,800$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.49 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 13c | 2,749$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 16c | 2,664$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.33 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,241$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…4506backed Yes | 5c | 2,225$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…fa8cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,217$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e3…8f53backed Yes | 1c | 2,202$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 31c | 2,186$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.47 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…713bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,149$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 27c | 2,044$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 17c | 2,007$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 16c | 1,836$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 17c | 1,750$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…66eabacked Yes | 18c | 1,724$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…c622backed Yes | 21c | 1,607$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 12c | 1,493$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…a50abacked Yes | 28c | 1,427$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…f959backed Yes | 15c | 1,386$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 11c | 1,320$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 23c | 1,294$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.65 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…838bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,292$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 16c | 1,271$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 12c | 1,266$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 6c | 1,158$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…9b86backed Yes | 31c | 1,140$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 11c | 1,128$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…0d19backed Yes | 14c | 1,074$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121a…ca6bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,031$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…82f9backed Yes | 24c | 1,018$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…1102backed Yes | 1c | 999.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 9c | 997.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…e159backed Yes | 18c | 975.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked Yes | 13c | 950.34$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3218…76b1backed Yes | 11c | 900.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…8bc3backed Yes | 28c | 899.99$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…2221backed Yes | 17c | 862.26$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…68c6backed Yes | 12c | 834.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Yes | 12c | 816.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb183…0badbacked Yes | 25c | 816$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 10c | 810$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031c…005ebacked Yes | 20c | 802.96$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…0994backed Yes | 25c | 798.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…6f01backed Yes | 27c | 777.29$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…4d24backed Yes | 29c | 753.31$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…1219backed Yes | 4c | 714.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5d…0734backed Yes | 27c | 712.67$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8f…83f2backed Yes | 18c | 709.66$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 30c | 699.88$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…ca2fbacked Yes | 8c | 633.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Yes | 20c | 623.91$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +220.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…c09cbacked Yes | 15c | 600.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…aaeebacked Yes | 15c | 599.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…2c7cbacked Yes | 11c | 585.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e4…837bbacked Yes | 10c | 581.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…2118backed Yes | 18c | 561.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…7849backed Yes | 20c | 559.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08d…2e58backed Yes | 20c | 543.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 23c | 542.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…c63ebacked Yes | 4c | 533.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…36ddbacked Yes | 28c | 528.42$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 12c | 528.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked Yes | 20c | 508.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd07f…e1dbbacked Yes | 10c | 507.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked Yes | 23c | 501.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…ffb3backed Yes | 28c | 484.58$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes | 13c | 483.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…1661backed Yes | 21c | 477.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…b270backed Yes | 3c | 475.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f4…1b85backed Yes | 11c | 471.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…4797backed No | 78c | 463.44$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…9d8cbacked Yes | 5c | 433.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…8d2fbacked Yes | 24c | 417.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…7929backed Yes | 24c | 404$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 9c | 397.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…89c4backed Yes | 27c | 394.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +185.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 18c | 390$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…7819backed Yes | 10c | 389.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 26c | 389.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 20cpaid | +514.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…ade5backed Yes | 14c | 374.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…b62ebacked Yes | 18c | 370.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…d393backed Yes | 10c | 366.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…4f92backed Yes | 17c | 363.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…daeebacked Yes | 10c | 362.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…f26fbacked Yes | 14c | 352.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3c37backed Yes | 5c | 350$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2e…f1c7backed Yes | 14c | 345.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?this page
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?Yes won
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? No won
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.