TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9b31…9d8c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 58 out of 100; worst Premier League at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT1926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Juventus end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Monaco win on 2025-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+455.6%+$91.11
Will Celtic win on 2025-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Feyenoord win on 2025-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will AC Milan beat Red Star Belgrade?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST+33.3%+$5
Will Benfica beat Bologna?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$110
Will Stuttgart beat Young Boys?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST+31%+$31
Will Feyenoord beat Sparta Praha?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST+37%+$36.99
Will Manchester City beat Juventus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$45
Will Arsenal beat Monaco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST+36.1%+$41.56
All 19 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 4, 2025, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-38.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Brentford vs. Brighton end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Crystal Palace vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$28.29
Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+100%+$20
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$4.94
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+44.6%+$5.35
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$12
Will Southampton win on 2024-12-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$11
Will Everton win on 2024-12-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Will West Ham win on 2024-12-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Will Southampton win on 2024-12-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+44.9%+$44.93
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$70
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+72.4%+$36.21
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 19 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+223.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Commanders vs. Saintsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+26.6%+$3.99
Bengals vs. Titansbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+42.9%+$6.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona beat Atletico Madrid?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+96.1%+$96.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+29.9%+$8.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.