Champions League · resolved market
Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ce04ac77c6cbbfc1cdf8ed117ceb65eaa8e94129a16cbbb8ce17354d1854e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa10d…acc6backed Yes | 2c | 7,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 76c | 2,298$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.53 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 77c | 1,306$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.96 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 23c | 1,142$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.65 | 254 | 50%127 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 76c | 1,011$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.71 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…d4dabacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…566bbacked Yes | 23c | 913.04$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked No | 77c | 798.7$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.7 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 76c | 755.38$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.38 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 76c | 604.84$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.16 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…92e8backed No | 79c | 519.01$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af2…6005backed No | 79c | 518.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 23c | 434.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Yes | 23c | 430$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 23c | 423.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd06…41f7backed Yes | 24c | 416.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ead…0cdfbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab9…91afbacked Yes | 24c | 375.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…a570backed Yes | 24c | 375$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes | 24c | 333.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 76c | 265.34$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…89f8backed No | 78c | 255.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecf…d2d0backed No | 79c | 253.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 24c | 251.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b37…c06bbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked No | 76c | 188.54$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 179.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…a8acbacked No | 78c | 146.91$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 24c | 126.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…3c9ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…0dfabacked No | 78c | 124.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…3de3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…1219backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…1228backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 77c | 96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 19c | 93.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…7c2fbacked No | 77c | 84.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db4…f62abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 23c | 81.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1187backed Yes | 24c | 72.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…7f36backed No | 77c | 72.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 76c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec3…d266backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6f…64b6backed Yes | 24c | 58.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…0a1cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1e1fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…9d8cbacked Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…d83bbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648b…89b4backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-19?No won
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-02-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.