Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton win on 2024-12-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3100d6cbb5a0600cdae4685b07af5090bcd87c4ffc1933bc4f4a47526258e5b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffd6…9b1cbacked Yes | 16c | 75,366$12,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,026.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 15c | 14,365$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,139.83 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 17c | 5,000$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.07 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1875…eb5ebacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 565.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 399.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 15c | 299.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Yes | 14c | 249.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 36c | 200.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…36ddbacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…a9b3backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…11b5backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 17c | 117.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…9e72backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…290ebacked Yes | 35c | 86.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10b8…3790backed Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…9d8cbacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae2…319fbacked No | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…60acbacked Yes | 39c | 25.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde75…4c5abacked No | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1a…9c17backed No | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…b01abacked No | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton win on 2024-12-29?this page
- Will Crystal Palace vs. Southampton end in a draw?No won
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.