Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica beat Bologna?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4430acb065772c4d3cddded1a4deb562cb9b7418228e4f42ccdbb6c86e7a85c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 28c | 3,345$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,394.54 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b1…688abacked Yes | 71c | 1,376$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 71c | 1,223$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.3 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 32c | 1,094$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.72 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…18d5backed Yes | 72c | 957.79$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 29c | 750.27$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.69 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked Yes | 67c | 594.65$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 23c | 568.97$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.22 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 69c | 544$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.36 | 233 | 52.8%123 W · 110 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 76c | 431.43$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 33c | 299.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.98 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 50c | 205$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 65c | 199.53$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 33c | 195.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.17 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 45c | 192.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 66c | 187.1$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.49 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…2d67backed Yes | 67c | 162$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…9d8cbacked Yes | 69c | 159.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 68c | 154.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes | 49c | 121.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 33c | 121$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…ad38backed Yes | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…d5c7backed Yes | 76c | 83.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 30c | 77.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…290ebacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 29c | 70.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 433 | 33.5%145 W · 288 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked No | 32c | 62.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 33c | 57.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6b00backed Yes | 68c | 43.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 50c | 37.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f0…a651backed Yes | 65c | 35.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed No | 30c | 35.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef3…b502backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dca…2978backed Yes | 67c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…e210backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…3e33backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…cd43backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…c301backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…4036backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…3462backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…d5c1backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…4678backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abb…dbbebacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…900abacked Yes | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed Yes | 68c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica beat Bologna?this page
- Will Bologna beat Benfica?No won
- Will the match between Benfica and Bologna end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.