TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x900b…d5c7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NFL, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 59 out of 100; worst Premier League at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2025, EST2958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid+21.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$79.92
Cavaliers vs. Warriorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+61.3%+$9.27
Rockets vs. Hornetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+32.4%+$11.27
Knicks vs. Pelicansbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+28.2%+$55.38
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$82.52
Bulls vs. Celticsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+1,011.1%+$164.2
Jazz vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST-100%-$60.81
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2024 NBA Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Jazz vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+33.3%+$10.07
Mavericks vs. Warriorsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+44.9%+$7.27
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+42.9%+$30
Hawks vs. Bucksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$38
Suns vs. Jazzbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+37.9%+$27.37
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST+69.5%+$22.07
Magic vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST+36.3%+$18.75
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST+42.9%+$18.1
Thunder vs. Pelicansbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST+31.6%+$8.01
Magic vs. 76ersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST-100%-$10.2
Nuggets vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2024, EST+58.7%+$7.63
Thunder vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$25
Hawks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$25
Rockets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$25
Bulls vs. Wizardsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST+108.3%+$26.35
Raptors vs. Pistonsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Magic vs. Hornetsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST+51.7%+$38.28
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST1392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick68cpaid+39.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
NFL — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lions vs. 49ersbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+51.5%+$52.54
Vikings vs. Seahawksbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+75.4%+$45.26
Titans vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+49.3%+$28.47
Rams vs. Jetsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+68.5%+$42.12
Bears vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+31.6%+$7.4
Patriots vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+37%+$4.38
Bengals vs. Cowboysbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST+28.2%+$11.73
Packers vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST+112.8%+$12.49
Giants vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST+42.9%+$5.52
Broncos vs. Raidersbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+52.2%+$31.54
Cowboys vs. Commandersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+31.8%+$16.69
Titans vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$57.68
Texans vs. Cowboysbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+29.9%+$28.06
All 13 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2024, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick67cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2024, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick67cpaid+22.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno Statebacked Northern Illinois · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+72.4%+$23.36
SMU vs. Penn Statebacked Penn State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+31.6%+$24
Tulane vs. Floridabacked Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+26.6%+$22.56
California vs. UNLVbacked UNLV · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST+61.3%+$16.27
Memphis vs. West Virginiabacked Memphis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+42.9%+$4.31
Kansas vs Coloradobacked Colorado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$14
All 6 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2024, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Sociedad beat Dynamo Kyiv?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST+31.6%+$17
Will AS Roma beat Braga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST+69.5%+$34.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+63.9%+$63.93
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$66.22
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Swanson vs. Quarantillobacked Quarantillo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$62.28
Oliveira vs. Chandlerbacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST+42.9%+$21.93
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lightning vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$15.2
Jets vs. Maple Leafsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+30.4%+$3.55
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain beat Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST+47.1%+$30.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.