TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Swanson vs. Quarantillo

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Swansonof Swanson, Quarantillo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,856 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8996…fbcebacked Swanson42c22,119$9,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,908.572642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a627backed Swanson42c20,353$8,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,804.814100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+62.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Quarantillo60c19,946$12,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,052.46453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5978…5e50backed Quarantillo58c10,005$5,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,802.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Swanson34c4,326$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.642042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Swanson40c4,006$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,403.1735826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Swanson31c2,589$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.8920954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Quarantillo60c2,527$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.9610149.5%50 W · 51 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Quarantillo67c2,239$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50013650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Quarantillo61c2,094$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.351181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick65cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Swanson37c2,056$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.83435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a1…75bcbacked Swanson37c2,050$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Swanson37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Swanson36c1,822$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.6914129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d12…007fbacked Swanson40c1,745$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.22333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Quarantillo58c1,320$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.9454056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e1…69a4backed Swanson40c1,264$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Quarantillo60c1,255$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.513953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cd…f03bbacked Swanson40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…fe58backed Swanson36c1,250$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.99683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+38.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Swanson40c1,100$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66039959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed Swanson37c799.95$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.973357.6%19 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+42.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Quarantillo64c624.46$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Swanson42c430$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.412147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…6e8ebacked Swanson41c363.48$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.784143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Swanson38c337.75$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.4610529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Swanson42c332.83$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.8314130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa67…0ef4backed Swanson36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1922634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdada…3a15backed Swanson41c258.73$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.65580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Swanson42c255$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe904…341bbacked Swanson42c248.29$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.65742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Quarantillo64c247$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.08757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebbc…ad30backed Quarantillo61c240.65$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f1…b624backed Quarantillo64c234.38$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74bc…3d45backed Swanson36c222.22$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Swanson39c203.35$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.3510040%40 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e0…d485backed Swanson39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.41333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x929c…8cb6backed Quarantillo61c200$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.811152.3%58 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff2…2602backed Swanson41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1186336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x538a…bd78backed Swanson39c199.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.993036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Quarantillo72c197.08$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.152360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Quarantillo60c170$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5b…b250backed Quarantillo60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002965.5%19 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae6f…7399backed Quarantillo63c163.12$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.532356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95cd…32d0backed Swanson41c154.23$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Quarantillo66c151.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022853.1%121 W · 107 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a56…a644backed Swanson42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…4805backed Swanson29c150$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+44.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Quarantillo62c150$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9335764.7%231 W · 126 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa952…88d2backed Quarantillo64c143.48$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.831154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9320…f7d7backed Quarantillo56c141.02$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.974057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Quarantillo56c123.57$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.25867.2%39 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaade…64eabacked Swanson41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.954139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…b02dbacked Quarantillo68c120$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Swanson42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0528333.2%94 W · 189 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a01…0d9abacked Quarantillo44c115.59$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.557548%36 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Quarantillo58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583073.3%22 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed Quarantillo50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x211a…9613backed Swanson40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608939.3%35 W · 54 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Quarantillo60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Quarantillo59c98.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.47921.5%17 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x900b…d5c7backed Quarantillo64c97.31$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…ac71backed Quarantillo60c82.15$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.29862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-11.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Swanson50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Quarantillo64c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.26254.8%34 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09cc…b956backed Quarantillo63c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Swanson40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9e…d9f9backed Swanson40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x413f…67c3backed Quarantillo64c70.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.83844.7%17 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Swanson39c68.17$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5833253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53f…17f8backed Swanson40c61.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Swanson41c60.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.719352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…578dbacked Swanson42c59.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafb7…75f4backed Swanson36c56.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.117655.3%42 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked Swanson36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5612245.1%55 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06be…8a46backed Swanson24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Swanson41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.59737.1%36 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Swanson40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3024649.6%122 W · 124 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe505…d18bbacked Swanson25c49.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.493441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed Swanson36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.62450%12 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b3…0cd4backed Quarantillo50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec15…86abbacked Quarantillo62c35.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.13366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Quarantillo59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc224…cd43backed Quarantillo60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0a3…6b77backed Quarantillo67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-56.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2d6…a89fbacked Quarantillo69c29.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5781…95a2backed Swanson41c27.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.421668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…88a6backed Quarantillo49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.15650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf842…682dbacked Quarantillo64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-47.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb337…5589backed Swanson46c21.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick59cpaid-51.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf6ad…cc72backed Quarantillo64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc633…b4e7backed Quarantillo64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103831.6%12 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.