UFC · resolved market
Stirling vs. Tokkos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae7e5072e5c3ca5a45158639ba004c487a4391e1334ad67eb8dd5cd6f11bb2b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stirlingof Stirling, Tokkos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Tokkos | 12c | 7,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.99 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Tokkos | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Tokkos | 10c | 4,627$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.66 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Tokkos | 13c | 3,374$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.62 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tokkos | 10c | 1,309$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Tokkos | 11c | 1,074$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.26 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Tokkos | 15c | 1,069$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.12 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Tokkos | 12c | 801.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Tokkos | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Tokkos | 14c | 215.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Tokkos | 16c | 213.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Tokkos | 13c | 211.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Tokkos | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Tokkos | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Tokkos | 12c | 152.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…c338backed Tokkos | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Tokkos | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09cc…b956backed Tokkos | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a8…0c2fbacked Tokkos | 14c | 75.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Stirling | 78c | 53.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stirling vs. Tokkosthis page
- Alvarez vs. KloseAlvarez won
- Covington vs. BuckleyBuckley won
- Grant vs.TaverasGrant won
- Johns vs. LimaLima won
- Johnson vs. AzaitarJohnson won
- Kape vs. SilvaKape won
- Knutsson vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Maverick vs. HorthMaverick won
- Petrino vs. JacobyJacoby won
- Swanson vs. QuarantilloSwanson won
- Woodson vs. PadillaWoodson won
- Yanez vs. MarcosMarcos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.