UFC · resolved market
Johnson vs. Azaitar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bdfdc0d6ad2bc4d48bd82af374bc544c9a7b7aa252018af1ff8f265fbc28164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Johnsonof Johnson, Azaitar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Azaitar | 34c | 1,750$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…1214backed Azaitar | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…f03bbacked Azaitar | 32c | 930.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Johnson | 67c | 685.67$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Johnson | 68c | 599.99$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Azaitar | 33c | 596.85$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.53 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Johnson | 65c | 577.17$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.01 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Azaitar | 30c | 549.4$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Johnson | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Johnson | 68c | 491.28$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.21 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Johnson | 70c | 457.79$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…c338backed Azaitar | 32c | 266.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Johnson | 66c | 180.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Johnson | 66c | 174.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12cd…ab49backed Johnson | 69c | 172.3$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Johnson | 66c | 152.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed Azaitar | 34c | 149.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Azaitar | 32c | 113.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Azaitar | 33c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09cc…b956backed Johnson | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Azaitar | 32c | 82.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Johnson | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Azaitar | 32c | 71.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Johnson | 70c | 63.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…a744backed Azaitar | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…1c3fbacked Johnson | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Azaitar | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde2…0b3cbacked Azaitar | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Azaitar | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Johnson | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…89dbbacked Johnson | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Azaitar | 31c | 36.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e1…e988backed Johnson | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Johnson | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Johnson | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Johnson | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Johnson | 65c | 16.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Johnson vs. Azaitarthis page
- Alvarez vs. KloseAlvarez won
- Covington vs. BuckleyBuckley won
- Grant vs.TaverasGrant won
- Johns vs. LimaLima won
- Kape vs. SilvaKape won
- Knutsson vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Maverick vs. HorthMaverick won
- Petrino vs. JacobyJacoby won
- Stirling vs. TokkosStirling won
- Swanson vs. QuarantilloSwanson won
- Woodson vs. PadillaWoodson won
- Yanez vs. MarcosMarcos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.