UFC · resolved market

Johns vs. Lima

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06f76be4a6723878a3463b81fc8c5ecd0798472c64e68379b9b632a6556a933b

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Limaof Johns, Lima
Resolved: Dec 14, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,446
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,446 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90ba…63f3backed Johns	30c	1,535$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.45	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Lima	70c	1,147$801 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345.5	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Lima	69c	758.57$523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236	160	49.4%79 W · 81 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Lima	69c	645.78$446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.19	101	49.5%50 W · 51 L	+5.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc8d…261abacked Johns	31c	645.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Lima	76c	500$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	357	64.7%231 W · 126 L	+9.8wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Johns	24c	405.13$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.37	202	49%99 W · 103 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Johns	31c	322.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	105	29.5%31 W · 74 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Johns	29c	245.16$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.43	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12cd…ab49backed Lima	72c	203$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.87	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55c6…c338backed Lima	77c	159.4$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.66	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Johns	31c	159.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	100	40%40 W · 60 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43a4…14cebacked Johns	13c	155.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.25	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Johns	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09cc…b956backed Lima	70c	99.99$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Lima	71c	99.99$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Johns	24c	99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	79	21.5%17 W · 62 L	-5.9wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Johns	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	141	30.5%43 W · 98 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Lima	71c	70.42$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.42	228	53.1%121 W · 107 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Lima	71c	70$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.3	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	63cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe555…782fbacked Johns	30c	66.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fea…8f7bbacked Johns	30c	65.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked Johns	31c	43$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	122	45.1%55 W · 67 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff4…a744backed Lima	71c	42.24$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcde4…f179backed Lima	72c	41.67$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.67	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5781…95a2backed Lima	71c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	61cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafb7…75f4backed Lima	77c	25.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	76	55.3%42 W · 34 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Lima	72c	20.83$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.83	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Johns vs. Limathis page
Alvarez vs. KloseAlvarez won
Covington vs. BuckleyBuckley won
Grant vs.TaverasGrant won
Johnson vs. AzaitarJohnson won
Kape vs. SilvaKape won
Knutsson vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
Maverick vs. HorthMaverick won
Petrino vs. JacobyJacoby won
Stirling vs. TokkosStirling won
Swanson vs. QuarantilloSwanson won
Woodson vs. PadillaWoodson won
Yanez vs. MarcosMarcos won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Johns vs. Lima

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event