UFC · resolved market
Yanez vs. Marcos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e4ccb12ae0a3a3a56e25ae4ed57d78053d86d3d5a8f1343a9bc0c81cb7b9334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marcosof Yanez, Marcos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Marcos | 69c | 10,306$7,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,173.91 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Yanez | 30c | 7,550$2,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,273.35 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yanez | 30c | 2,820$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.95 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Yanez | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yanez | 33c | 2,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Marcos | 69c | 1,636$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.82 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Marcos | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Marcos | 66c | 1,398$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.41 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Yanez | 33c | 1,317$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…f9a2backed Yanez | 31c | 1,315$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Marcos | 72c | 1,200$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yanez | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yanez | 34c | 846.09$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.64 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yanez | 30c | 833.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Marcos | 69c | 753.23$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.5 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…19a4backed Yanez | 38c | 554.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Marcos | 62c | 515$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.95 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Yanez | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yanez | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yanez | 18c | 500$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Marcos | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…b624backed Yanez | 28c | 446.43$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Marcos | 61c | 429.4$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.76 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Marcos | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 357 | 64.7%231 W · 126 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Yanez | 36c | 393.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Marcos | 62c | 338.33$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Marcos | 63c | 304.68$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa952…88d2backed Marcos | 74c | 304.11$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yanez | 33c | 300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…c338backed Marcos | 72c | 250.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yanez | 30c | 231.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Yanez | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Yanez | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…fbf1backed Yanez | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4805backed Yanez | 29c | 170.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Yanez | 32c | 159$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…f7d7backed Yanez | 32c | 144.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09cc…b956backed Marcos | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Marcos | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Marcos | 65c | 115.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yanez | 32c | 110.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…3d45backed Yanez | 37c | 108.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Marcos | 66c | 100.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Marcos | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Marcos | 71c | 87.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0d9abacked Yanez | 22c | 81.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…a744backed Marcos | 72c | 79.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c4…429bbacked Marcos | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yanez | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…a89fbacked Marcos | 72c | 69.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…5272backed Marcos | 73c | 57.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Marcos | 64c | 56.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Marcos | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marcos | 61c | 54.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c2…4992backed Marcos | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Marcos | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Marcos | 72c | 45.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7625…b365backed Yanez | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Marcos | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…d0f4backed Yanez | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Marcos | 72c | 41.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…3bdbbacked Yanez | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…4352backed Marcos | 78c | 38.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb366…d125backed Marcos | 65c | 38.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Yanez | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Marcos | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Marcos | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Marcos | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1178…cb19backed Yanez | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Marcos | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yanez vs. Marcosthis page
- Alvarez vs. KloseAlvarez won
- Covington vs. BuckleyBuckley won
- Grant vs.TaverasGrant won
- Johns vs. LimaLima won
- Johnson vs. AzaitarJohnson won
- Kape vs. SilvaKape won
- Knutsson vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Maverick vs. HorthMaverick won
- Petrino vs. JacobyJacoby won
- Stirling vs. TokkosStirling won
- Swanson vs. QuarantilloSwanson won
- Woodson vs. PadillaWoodson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.