UFC · resolved market
Alvarez vs. Klose
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd576f9796c58b9a3548ac0da19827b22b5bc80e1203ccd77c454fa49a6389429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alvarezof Alvarez, Klose
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5978…5e50backed Klose | 18c | 9,056$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Klose | 18c | 2,700$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.92 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Klose | 18c | 2,526$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.19 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Klose | 18c | 1,750$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Alvarez | 80c | 1,305$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.93 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…0638backed Klose | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Klose | 19c | 531.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Klose | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Klose | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Klose | 16c | 321.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Klose | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Klose | 15c | 251.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12cd…ab49backed Klose | 17c | 188.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Klose | 17c | 184.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Klose | 16c | 155.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Klose | 15c | 130.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Klose | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Klose | 19c | 94.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1178…cb19backed Klose | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alvarez vs. Klosethis page
- Covington vs. BuckleyBuckley won
- Grant vs.TaverasGrant won
- Johns vs. LimaLima won
- Johnson vs. AzaitarJohnson won
- Kape vs. SilvaKape won
- Knutsson vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Maverick vs. HorthMaverick won
- Petrino vs. JacobyJacoby won
- Stirling vs. TokkosStirling won
- Swanson vs. QuarantilloSwanson won
- Woodson vs. PadillaWoodson won
- Yanez vs. MarcosMarcos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.