UFC · resolved market
Kape vs. Silva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6096f8edeb869e47c9558aa4fb51886e970a0e79ac1efc7e10c70879afe1ca6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kapeof Kape, Silva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Kape | 77c | 9,833$7,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.07 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Silva | 23c | 8,720$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.07 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Silva | 23c | 4,500$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Kape | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed Kape | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…75bcbacked Silva | 21c | 1,800$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Kape | 76c | 1,592$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kape | 76c | 1,166$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.87 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Kape | 80c | 1,010$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Silva | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Silva | 22c | 901.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…261abacked Silva | 24c | 666.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Kape | 72c | 604$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Silva | 28c | 580$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Silva | 24c | 573.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Silva | 8c | 543.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kape | 67c | 502.06$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.72 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Silva | 7c | 499.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Silva | 23c | 418.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4805backed Silva | 20c | 410$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa72…1285backed Silva | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Kape | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Silva | 22c | 327.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Silva | 22c | 314.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa952…88d2backed Silva | 23c | 291.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Kape | 79c | 288.69$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Silva | 23c | 214.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Silva | 22c | 198.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xace4…bd19backed Kape | 74c | 178.19$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Kape | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Kape | 77c | 142.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Kape | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Kape | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Kape | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…1c3fbacked Kape | 76c | 121.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Silva | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Silva | 23c | 100.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Kape | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…67c3backed Kape | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Kape | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Kape | 79c | 97.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Silva | 24c | 87.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Silva | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Silva | 22c | 85.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Silva | 26c | 77.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Kape | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…a89fbacked Kape | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf42…c3b4backed Silva | 22c | 63.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d14…e013backed Kape | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11f…9a86backed Kape | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…86f8backed Silva | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…65bcbacked Kape | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Kape | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Kape | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Kape | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…6b1fbacked Kape | 79c | 33.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…11abbacked Kape | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Kape | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…ad12backed Kape | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…e32dbacked Kape | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b1…ee4dbacked Kape | 77c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…6182backed Kape | 77c | 14.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Kape | 78c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kape vs. Silvathis page
- Alvarez vs. KloseAlvarez won
- Covington vs. BuckleyBuckley won
- Grant vs.TaverasGrant won
- Johns vs. LimaLima won
- Johnson vs. AzaitarJohnson won
- Knutsson vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Maverick vs. HorthMaverick won
- Petrino vs. JacobyJacoby won
- Stirling vs. TokkosStirling won
- Swanson vs. QuarantilloSwanson won
- Woodson vs. PadillaWoodson won
- Yanez vs. MarcosMarcos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.