UFC · resolved market
Knutsson vs. Rodriguez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48377778f26a66428e9110fc59301e908951c4130c7601e45af7eaa0b1f3487a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rodriguezof Knutsson, Rodriguez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Knutsson | 71c | 10,000$7,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,099.98 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Rodriguez | 30c | 6,306$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,432.72 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Rodriguez | 47c | 2,486$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.78 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Rodriguez | 39c | 2,051$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.27 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Rodriguez | 32c | 1,101$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.51 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Knutsson | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…ec22backed Knutsson | 2c | 679.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Rodriguez | 34c | 580$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Knutsson | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Rodriguez | 29c | 333$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.43 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Rodriguez | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Rodriguez | 28c | 258.78$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Knutsson | 66c | 217$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.07 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rodriguez | 29c | 197.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.9 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Knutsson | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Rodriguez | 43c | 94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…8f7bbacked Rodriguez | 29c | 70.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Rodriguez | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Rodriguez | 33c | 58.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Knutsson | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Knutsson | 73c | 52.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Knutsson | 70c | 47.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Rodriguez | 34c | 47.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1178…cb19backed Rodriguez | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Knutsson | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Knutsson | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -7.4wins | -0.49per pick | 56cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knutsson vs. Rodriguezthis page
- Alvarez vs. KloseAlvarez won
- Covington vs. BuckleyBuckley won
- Grant vs.TaverasGrant won
- Johns vs. LimaLima won
- Johnson vs. AzaitarJohnson won
- Kape vs. SilvaKape won
- Maverick vs. HorthMaverick won
- Petrino vs. JacobyJacoby won
- Stirling vs. TokkosStirling won
- Swanson vs. QuarantilloSwanson won
- Woodson vs. PadillaWoodson won
- Yanez vs. MarcosMarcos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.