UFC · resolved market
Woodson vs. Padilla
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x098a1aee72468639e64e6b63aaae25db56442a84e4ab5d2ff267a7d8cd2e10d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Woodsonof Woodson, Padilla
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5978…5e50backed Padilla | 41c | 7,500$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Woodson | 58c | 3,905$2,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.71 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Woodson | 59c | 3,199$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.41 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Woodson | 60c | 1,811$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.26 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Padilla | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Padilla | 42c | 1,234$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…0638backed Padilla | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Woodson | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Woodson | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Woodson | 58c | 267.27$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…c338backed Woodson | 62c | 246.6$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…261abacked Padilla | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12cd…ab49backed Padilla | 39c | 135.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f6…9538backed Padilla | 43c | 119.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Woodson | 58c | 98.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Woodson | 60c | 84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Woodson | 61c | 82.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Woodson | 80c | 77.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…a744backed Woodson | 60c | 70.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Woodson | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed Padilla | 42c | 63.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Padilla | 42c | 60.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Padilla | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…f77ebacked Padilla | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Woodson | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Woodson | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Woodson | 60c | 24.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Woodson | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Woodson vs. Padillathis page
- Alvarez vs. KloseAlvarez won
- Covington vs. BuckleyBuckley won
- Grant vs.TaverasGrant won
- Johns vs. LimaLima won
- Johnson vs. AzaitarJohnson won
- Kape vs. SilvaKape won
- Knutsson vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Maverick vs. HorthMaverick won
- Petrino vs. JacobyJacoby won
- Stirling vs. TokkosStirling won
- Swanson vs. QuarantilloSwanson won
- Yanez vs. MarcosMarcos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.