Us Midterms · resolved market
Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x726d7a300f200afe20b93b43b2dd52d45bf57b714b1a81ed31e29ec9771dd24a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $651,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $677,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $651,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 2c | 61,011$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 56,489$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 29,841$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 10c | 29,088$2,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,828.01 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…27e9backed Yes | 1c | 19,304$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed Yes | 8c | 13,705$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 15c | 6,402$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 9c | 6,331$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 12c | 6,196$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 8c | 5,758$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.11 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995d…cb57backed Yes | 17c | 5,460$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…bafdbacked Yes | 9c | 5,428$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 13c | 5,127$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.49 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 5c | 4,653$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.39 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 0c | 3,666$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 11c | 3,181$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.06 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes | 0c | 2,582$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 2,306$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.83 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…919fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,674$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 9c | 1,659$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 8c | 1,593$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 9c | 1,591$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…5c34backed Yes | 10c | 1,369$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c7…c12dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,039$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes | 17c | 1,027$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed Yes | 13c | 1,004$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc062…1239backed Yes | 7c | 887.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 14c | 852.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…e78fbacked Yes | 12c | 811.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 11c | 731.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed Yes | 12c | 700$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 10c | 680.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 11c | 625.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 10c | 599.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 8c | 576.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed Yes | 5c | 575.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 9c | 500.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 475.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked Yes | 3c | 456.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…d5c7backed Yes | 11c | 448.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…6446backed Yes | 12c | 440.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…bc5ebacked Yes | 12c | 414.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4814…1968backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 10c | 355$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0406…32dbbacked Yes | 11c | 345.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 11c | 314.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 13c | 310$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d2…90abbacked Yes | 32c | 309.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…85f3backed Yes | 8c | 250.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8788…dc26backed Yes | 7c | 245.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 32cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 20c | 244.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 229.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413a…1592backed Yes | 14c | 226.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 9c | 224.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 19c | 204.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…8eaebacked Yes | 18c | 199.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e63…4268backed Yes | 20c | 195.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 10c | 192.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…a2b6backed Yes | 13c | 186.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 12c | 142.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 73c | 141$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…6adabacked Yes | 14c | 139.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e5…3a68backed Yes | 14c | 139.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…83edbacked Yes | 21c | 116.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed Yes | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…67c6backed Yes | 10c | 105.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe376…ad32backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 14c | 92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader?this page
- Will JD Vance be the next Senate Majority Leader?No won
- Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader?No won
- Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes won
- Will Joni Ernst be the next Senate Majority Leader?No won
- Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?No won
- Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.