TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,005,847
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,664,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,005,847 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda08…72d4backed Yes3c54,941$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.962850%14 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+41.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e79…9540backed Yes0c44,531$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff51…da27backed Yes0c34,259$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5fa0backed Yes0c34,259$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6f3…752ebacked Yes0c34,249$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ffa…0d0cbacked Yes0c34,029$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7333…321bbacked Yes0c31,668$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…af82backed Yes0c30,472$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ec…b459backed Yes0c30,181$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c29,958$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.961320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd72…d8c9backed Yes0c29,220$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71d…9c7abacked Yes0c28,627$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0abc…d966backed Yes0c27,976$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x040e…0f36backed Yes0c27,634$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd304…8ee8backed Yes0c26,780$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf844…a8aabacked Yes0c26,205$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7822…8115backed Yes0c25,763$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x966e…d4afbacked Yes0c25,366$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3533…5cc8backed Yes0c25,220$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…f3a3backed Yes0c24,881$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3865…e2c9backed Yes0c24,690$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x171b…d171backed Yes0c24,284$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d85…40fabacked Yes0c24,132$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d2…51c1backed Yes0c23,764$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x628f…0014backed Yes0c23,672$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc185…2feabacked Yes0c23,474$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2b…6de8backed Yes0c23,466$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8467…99cbbacked Yes0c23,408$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8892…65b1backed Yes0c22,902$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c74…7c1ebacked Yes0c22,676$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b88…e20bbacked Yes0c22,419$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x645a…4c31backed Yes0c22,277$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x618b…9a91backed Yes0c22,267$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b6…cbd3backed Yes0c21,777$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ee…d4d0backed Yes0c21,743$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae4…0497backed Yes0c21,720$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c40…9fa2backed Yes0c21,676$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x559e…6a00backed Yes0c21,600$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20c1…d49dbacked Yes0c21,426$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0990…555fbacked Yes0c21,175$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32da…3082backed Yes0c21,058$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98e…5d39backed Yes0c20,957$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcb8…5e64backed Yes0c20,755$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20442.3%1 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff6…d757backed Yes0c19,954$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de5…048dbacked Yes0c19,714$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa594…3af0backed Yes0c19,536$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c84…9fc2backed Yes0c19,304$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8581…fb93backed Yes0c18,963$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b3…e6babacked Yes0c18,860$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x548b…79a4backed Yes0c18,736$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b2f…2eb6backed Yes0c18,718$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a1…d8debacked Yes0c18,554$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3c8…7813backed Yes0c18,460$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3f…36efbacked Yes0c18,209$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5241…8f21backed Yes0c17,274$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x399a…f344backed Yes0c17,241$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d0…c1cebacked Yes0c16,588$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ae1…4c08backed Yes0c16,497$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb59b…a9e3backed Yes0c16,290$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e9…c580backed Yes0c16,254$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8df…f407backed Yes0c16,229$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6dc…aa57backed Yes0c16,055$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c7a…e117backed Yes0c16,038$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d1…d403backed Yes0c15,846$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32fa…dda7backed Yes0c15,612$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b55…a894backed Yes0c15,304$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ff…c04fbacked Yes0c15,304$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes0c15,300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-67.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8e4d…2374backed Yes0c15,096$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f70…df7bbacked Yes0c15,070$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9032…b800backed Yes0c14,861$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7136…5dbabacked Yes0c14,827$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x648f…e84cbacked Yes0c14,803$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad9…aac0backed Yes0c14,569$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f55…0ed0backed Yes0c14,392$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…6573backed Yes0c14,356$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x114e…76e2backed Yes0c14,114$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c8…7d2fbacked Yes0c14,076$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af1…da69backed Yes0c13,817$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf311…4409backed Yes0c13,817$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f0d…415fbacked Yes0c13,782$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a4…da51backed Yes0c13,583$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b77…7678backed Yes0c13,550$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab1…1c82backed Yes0c13,140$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8932…6fd7backed Yes0c12,932$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea1…10e9backed Yes0c12,906$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb15…c7a3backed Yes0c12,905$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215f…0b1abacked Yes0c12,572$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1404…1529backed Yes0c12,479$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b91…d9eabacked Yes0c12,387$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe556…9748backed Yes0c11,677$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb30…2ae7backed Yes0c11,041$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e67…d1edbacked Yes0c10,843$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb230…6e51backed Yes0c10,492$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b5…6fa4backed Yes0c10,090$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf077…69d9backed Yes0c9,882$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e0c…710bbacked Yes0c9,858$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5699…969dbacked Yes0c9,471$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.