TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will JD Vance be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,167,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$510,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,167,157 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c72,915$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.191320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1853…6a0bbacked Yes0c37,473$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes2c32,694$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.4380%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ea…8306backed Yes0c28,238$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa125…f451backed Yes0c27,465$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0230…f2c9backed Yes0c25,671$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x113b…2dd9backed Yes0c24,158$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73cd…829bbacked Yes0c23,594$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92d…2a64backed Yes0c23,594$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bee…2bb7backed Yes0c23,104$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02cf…63cabacked Yes0c23,104$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1406…7adabacked Yes0c23,104$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb1…78e6backed Yes0c21,277$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd187…bb6bbacked Yes0c21,277$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e9…098fbacked Yes0c21,277$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes0c21,160$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.942114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-67.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd43f…0116backed Yes0c20,537$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec6…57f8backed Yes0c20,537$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc48e…9a98backed Yes0c20,537$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8118…147abacked Yes0c19,024$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e1…738bbacked Yes0c19,024$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f75…41f7backed Yes0c18,710$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bba…d0d3backed Yes0c18,710$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfbb…9867backed Yes0c17,970$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ecf…db25backed Yes0c17,970$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f6…5faabacked Yes0c17,970$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1faf…8df8backed Yes0c17,970$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c2…a1c5backed Yes0c17,970$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd498…9a27backed Yes0c16,947$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadd…0177backed Yes0c16,637$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a00…ed53backed Yes0c16,632$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45ed…d355backed Yes0c16,457$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f09…b474backed Yes0c16,382$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d9…b34fbacked Yes0c16,382$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260a…dbf6backed Yes0c16,142$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8265…8b0cbacked Yes0c16,142$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf9…e7bebacked Yes0c16,132$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1716…ab6ebacked Yes0c15,932$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0811…bd26backed Yes0c15,927$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f95…cd99backed Yes0c15,922$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f16…35e0backed Yes0c15,917$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17b…dcffbacked Yes0c15,912$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe16f…afb7backed Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b60…683dbacked Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb660…021fbacked Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4673…0e2fbacked Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9da…7a2bbacked Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68c…2550backed Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b1…3b09backed Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe245…a990backed Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ebe…0202backed Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab3b…d8dcbacked Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7375…d56ebacked Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cd…6cbdbacked Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb43a…0891backed Yes0c15,402$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Yes0c13,967$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3261…e415backed Yes0c13,890$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde7…d89dbacked Yes0c13,890$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ff…7ff4backed Yes0c13,890$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9f…bd54backed Yes0c13,640$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe647…41edbacked Yes0c13,575$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…ccc4backed Yes0c13,575$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9518…839cbacked Yes0c13,575$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf255…d20abacked Yes0c13,575$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x909b…6246backed Yes0c12,835$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d14…5c0fbacked Yes0c12,835$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46f…ef8cbacked Yes0c12,835$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95f8…2692backed Yes0c12,835$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3b…0d68backed Yes0c12,835$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c3…7f69backed Yes0c12,835$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x252b…b903backed Yes0c12,835$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe607…df65backed Yes0c12,835$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5061…54ccbacked Yes0c12,835$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9627…ad31backed Yes0c12,835$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c12,614$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.74395.1%2 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a35…4afebacked Yes0c12,063$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b3d…08bcbacked Yes0c11,323$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x374e…bbb2backed Yes0c11,323$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d4…098bbacked Yes0c11,323$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…a629backed Yes0c11,323$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x194d…8a8dbacked Yes0c11,008$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x895a…b7efbacked Yes0c11,008$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x317a…7b98backed Yes1c10,751$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed47…6af8backed Yes1c10,417$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f1…2671backed Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedfa…a421backed Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1da4…2b7cbacked Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8375…8b82backed Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f07…834dbacked Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfd…8870backed Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff3…ef93backed Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x282a…7a3dbacked Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc762…ebc2backed Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0cd…e455backed Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a4…76eabacked Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d19…68dfbacked Yes0c10,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25e…0aa5backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e36…42d0backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb887…2879backed Yes0c9,181$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e9…04e0backed Yes0c8,756$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.