TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Trail Blazers, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$649,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$694,183

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $649,288 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ff0…46e3backed Cavaliers65c80,187$52,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,093.7247656.5%269 W · 207 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…68dcbacked Cavaliers55c73,433$40,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,366.09944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Trail Blazers38c47,203$18,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,053.543,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Trail Blazers33c35,030$11,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,732.533931.9%108 W · 231 L-28.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-37.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x471f…f60abacked Trail Blazers67c19,000$12,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,653.934575.6%34 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Trail Blazers42c17,304$7,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,327.580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed Trail Blazers53c14,255$7,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,555.153745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Trail Blazers16c10,956$1,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.6996447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…3e11backed Trail Blazers42c10,578$4,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,433.622049.1%108 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Trail Blazers48c9,873$4,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,750.541,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Trail Blazers55c9,156$5,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,035.2670640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Trail Blazers17c8,014$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.021,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Cavaliers76c8,000$6,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92029858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Trail Blazers23c7,003$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.119038.9%35 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Cavaliers58c6,673$3,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,789.3919152.4%100 W · 91 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Trail Blazers17c6,666$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.2130826.6%82 W · 226 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Trail Blazers9c6,337$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.441,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed Trail Blazers51c6,049$3,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,093.176250%31 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Cavaliers59c5,323$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,173.3510926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8367…2a2abacked Trail Blazers20c4,926$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.223842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Trail Blazers21c4,759$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.364339.5%17 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Cavaliers67c4,477$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.366873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Trail Blazers16c4,028$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.4940627.8%113 W · 293 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Cavaliers75c3,549$2,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.4220447.1%96 W · 108 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Cavaliers53c3,457$1,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.0834532.8%113 W · 232 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Trail Blazers16c3,200$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.9746928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c8d…d880backed Trail Blazers50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Trail Blazers65c2,982$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,951.6961345.5%279 W · 334 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Cavaliers77c2,829$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.119744.3%43 W · 54 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Cavaliers58c2,684$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.1330443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Cavaliers72c2,574$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.667149.3%35 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Trail Blazers18c2,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501,09035.8%390 W · 700 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Cavaliers57c2,029$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.3772341.2%298 W · 425 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x089b…2193backed Cavaliers28c2,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44027731.4%87 W · 190 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b3…6ed8backed Cavaliers68c2,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65017256.4%97 W · 75 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Trail Blazers34c1,990$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.6188053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Trail Blazers15c1,887$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.071,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Cavaliers74c1,886$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.239868.4%67 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Trail Blazers53c1,873$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.549849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ac…b899backed Trail Blazers53c1,800$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9546943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e3…ad70backed Trail Blazers59c1,691$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9edc…a0c0backed Trail Blazers16c1,529$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.711233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Trail Blazers46c1,511$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.9136751.8%190 W · 177 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Cavaliers80c1,500$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3011,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3a…0a11backed Trail Blazers24c1,483$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc167…4056backed Trail Blazers27c1,290$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.368943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7096…e019backed Cavaliers70c1,290$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.6430061.7%185 W · 115 L+23.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+25.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Trail Blazers45c1,285$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.5250047.2%236 W · 264 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x854f…00a7backed Trail Blazers39c1,199$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.4747229.4%139 W · 333 L-33.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d80…219abacked Cavaliers34c1,150$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7607851.3%40 W · 38 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb215…b819backed Trail Blazers17c1,147$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026124.1%63 W · 198 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Trail Blazers42c1,109$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.775,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Trail Blazers45c1,065$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.3970951.3%364 W · 345 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Trail Blazers15c999.93$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9931125.1%78 W · 233 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x286e…adb7backed Cavaliers79c968$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.774052.5%21 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd3…7214backed Trail Blazers46c961.4$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.318632.8%61 W · 125 L-12.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ccb…0a10backed Trail Blazers36c900$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3246744.8%30 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe663…6462backed Cavaliers56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.866747.8%32 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Trail Blazers17c883.06$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.787647.5%416 W · 460 L+3.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Trail Blazers18c854.29$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.771,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Trail Blazers77c844.44$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6507864.1%50 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Trail Blazers51c833.39$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.617943.6%78 W · 101 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa33…8dbcbacked Cavaliers20c790$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63429450.3%148 W · 146 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…6be8backed Cavaliers71c749.99$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22029747.5%141 W · 156 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Trail Blazers25c718.96$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7438027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Trail Blazers17c699.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4285542%359 W · 496 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0825…ddbcbacked Cavaliers50c685.68$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.652729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aab…9c4cbacked Cavaliers75c650$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.529661.5%182 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…c5f7backed Trail Blazers16c622.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Trail Blazers14c620$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.298783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68f9…4038backed Trail Blazers17c615.81$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Cavaliers57c595.25$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.2510345.6%47 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Trail Blazers57c591.32$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.633119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-36.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Trail Blazers17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023539.1%92 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcabe…72e3backed Trail Blazers8c556.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.461921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Trail Blazers19c551.79$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10317335.8%62 W · 111 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Cavaliers76c540$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.5528347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b2…66d8backed Cavaliers56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.715660.7%34 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Cavaliers21c528.57$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.5741742%175 W · 242 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Trail Blazers18c517.04$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0723135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Cavaliers79c510.99$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9238464.3%247 W · 137 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Trail Blazers17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8537734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2b…525abacked Trail Blazers26c480.63$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.284528.9%13 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Trail Blazers32c475.13$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9935660.4%215 W · 141 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Trail Blazers31c451.68$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1671747.6%341 W · 376 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49dc…9830backed Cavaliers64c450.14$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.14887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick48cpaid+101.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Trail Blazers20c417.53$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3137011.4%42 W · 328 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8bf…c049backed Trail Blazers34c412.77$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1406848.5%33 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef94…d101backed Cavaliers79c410$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.11163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca5f…1e74backed Trail Blazers66c405.64$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.034238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d5…fc86backed Trail Blazers17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Cavaliers76c399.99$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9648137.2%179 W · 302 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bbf…2760backed Cavaliers65c393.26$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.0231935.1%112 W · 207 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb701…7cf6backed Trail Blazers22c391.67$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8630331.4%95 W · 208 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Cavaliers31c379.33$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.3234524.3%84 W · 261 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe742…7559backed Cavaliers80c373.69$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7412955%71 W · 58 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked Trail Blazers44c368.89$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.311250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Trail Blazers27c368.29$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8822733%75 W · 152 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae5…3113backed Cavaliers55c361.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.9223359.7%139 W · 94 L+0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Trail Blazers17c355$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3516919.5%33 W · 136 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.