TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$246,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$276,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,296 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 471 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19d8…1691backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e54…44fdbacked No1c15,109$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No43c11,862$5,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,045.7437841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No32c10,040$3,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,257.9168026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3550…68b6backed No2c8,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205413%7 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed No35c7,763$2,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,724.0932037.2%119 W · 201 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b4…5389backed No31c7,700$2,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,38710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed Yes69c7,648$5,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No39c7,171$2,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,773.6479650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No11c5,801$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.1279639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes64c5,435$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.339917.2%17 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.9741437.9%157 W · 257 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb90e…5794backed Yes68c4,666$3,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.633348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked No32c3,060$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.1340254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6d…f360backed No2c2,500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.52128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3e…b656backed Yes69c2,323$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.191741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe04f…cfc5backed Yes46c2,230$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.11366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7b3…246abacked No34c2,222$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.485646.4%26 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes54c2,149$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.1332158.9%189 W · 132 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Yes67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66040046%184 W · 216 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x310d…d698backed Yes66c1,864$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.91553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8769…48ecbacked Yes65c1,721$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.834252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b9…e864backed No39c1,621$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.051361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes64c1,563$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.511342.5%48 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf719…987abacked Yes64c1,563$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed No32c1,516$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4851136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…59e2backed No34c1,386$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.15453.7%29 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes63c1,006$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.3638649%189 W · 197 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa075…09fdbacked Yes62c1,003$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.394637%17 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31044939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed Yes64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3603447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3608145.7%37 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91f7…0108backed Yes59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed No49c948.68$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.5137652.4%197 W · 179 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1396…b149backed Yes63c946.34$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.32454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b4…b468backed Yes68c907.18$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.3955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf96d…dafdbacked Yes66c880.13$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.241050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No36c851.37$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.4918950.3%95 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes47c844.81$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.8129044.8%130 W · 160 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed No32c781.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.233762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes72c748.99$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.6869772.6%506 W · 191 L+83.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x71f6…d12fbacked Yes65c738.54$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.493240.6%13 W · 19 L-7.5wins-0.23per pick64cpaid-37.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5eae…f263backed Yes68c738.17$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.179037.8%34 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc745…9499backed Yes68c730.61$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.6111638.8%45 W · 71 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed No33c718.18$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23710445.2%47 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Yes65c706.17$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.44560%27 W · 18 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+97.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked No30c699.97$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9917837.6%67 W · 111 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf87…69b2backed Yes65c692.31$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.313020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc558…e8ccbacked Yes41c690$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.62050%10 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes65c690$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.52142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0bb…9702backed No37c654.05$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2426838.2%26 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes69c652.17$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.1715347.7%73 W · 80 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x558e…9d39backed Yes66c606.53$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.321172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+55.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked No35c599.97$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.997651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f41…4ae3backed Yes66c580.53$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed No36c563$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.682725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Yes68c562.29$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.2911353.1%60 W · 53 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes57c560$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.23262.5%20 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No33c515.97$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.990751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Yes68c512.11$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.888750.6%44 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes68c507.82$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.522744.5%101 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66e7…e316backed Yes76c504.04$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.234938.8%19 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18029653%157 W · 139 L-23.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes70c500$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7142755%235 W · 192 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe46e…ce65backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Yes67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1653842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5666…8cdfbacked Yes68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No33c495.38$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.256158.6%329 W · 232 L+29.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a8a…0acdbacked Yes68c459.69$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.14926.5%13 W · 36 L-7.8wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-44.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4469…cefebacked No30c453.2$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.96520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-73.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91c0…846cbacked No34c450$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd181…c557backed No34c441.51$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed No42c415.9$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6829751.9%154 W · 143 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbf…2760backed Yes49c403.52$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.197241.7%30 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fc…cff4backed Yes64c380.1$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes66c378.79$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7939561.3%242 W · 153 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes65c366.15$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1514156.7%80 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x686e…af8cbacked Yes43c352.19$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.758825%22 W · 66 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd82a…94c3backed Yes69c352.17$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.17955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…1219backed Yes69c351.92$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.14245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes56c350$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15410341.7%43 W · 60 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe060…fda8backed Yes64c341.5$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.948155.6%45 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No34c338.98$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3234251.8%177 W · 165 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes68c333.01$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2317143.3%74 W · 97 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No34c332.29$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4160557.5%348 W · 257 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadff…e3f3backed Yes46c327.54$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.871741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No30c323.25$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9816660.8%101 W · 65 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8997…8df7backed Yes64c312.52$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc483…2fe7backed No32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x235a…b3b8backed Yes64c310.3$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.711883.3%15 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+29.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.69119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-86%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cf9…1289backed Yes64c305.25$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.891553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe06c…62aebacked Yes69c303.41$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.069355.9%52 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x863a…2b7bbacked No37c302.7$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…0c1abacked Yes69c301$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.31850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Yes66c293.94$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.941850%9 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…7493backed Yes66c293.37$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x476b…8a58backed Yes65c290.49$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.673151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes27c290$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.719743.7%86 W · 111 L+32.4wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+142.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xa652…531fbacked No37c270.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.