Premier League · resolved market
Will Brentford vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9f3f7cc981fe802f3f04b2bc3d2ae02349d3ceb8ba2bd9c619455f501ab13e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a6e…33ddbacked Yes | 18c | 10,955$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 20c | 5,639$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.47 | 320 | 37.2%119 W · 201 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 11c | 5,519$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.49 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 80c | 3,472$2,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.98 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 75c | 2,663$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.36 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Yes | 30c | 2,025$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…5726backed Yes | 19c | 1,779$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eed…0c9abacked Yes | 21c | 952.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…25dbbacked No | 71c | 869.48$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 23c | 810.35$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.38 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 30c | 660.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 21c | 616.25$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.41 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01b9…e864backed No | 66c | 499.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 3c | 411.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…2fe7backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x825b…f489backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…cddbbacked Yes | 18c | 228.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…98a8backed Yes | 20c | 200.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…903dbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad71…4c93backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa10d…acc6backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…8e5abacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…1e41backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 71c | 172.41$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…8015backed No | 76c | 161.57$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 19c | 155.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc73…613dbacked Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3db…bc45backed Yes | 19c | 114.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…bde3backed Yes | 34c | 112.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 17c | 110.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…1219backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2c98backed Yes | 19c | 103.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…025cbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…cab4backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…3814backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…375abacked Yes | 20c | 76.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 80c | 66.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed No | 79c | 63.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ec…1af7backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 24c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173c…52c8backed Yes | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed Yes | 33c | 48.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 109 | 32.1%35 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 80c | 38.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 78c | 33.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 99 | 17.2%17 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…9681backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…0300backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2236…cad3backed No | 80c | 21.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…ed78backed No | 73c | 21.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…d632backed No | 68c | 16.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…879cbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brentford vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01?Yes won
- Will Brentford win on 2025-01-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.