TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,494,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,458,712

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,494,049 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes45c62,846$28,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,204.4418425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed No59c60,264$35,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,745.79757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes27c51,108$13,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,649.0512824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf7…1b90backed Yes23c49,122$11,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,243.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes1c46,925$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.6412025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes40c43,216$17,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,237.1225824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes28c41,865$11,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,724.4435123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes36c34,133$12,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,407.4937745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes32c34,016$10,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,849.4763835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes30c33,262$10,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,085.5947721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes34c28,122$9,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,568.0787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes27c21,504$5,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,899.2922216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes1c19,104$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.48128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-86.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes10c16,816$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.8615023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked No73c15,807$11,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,224.754242.9%18 W · 24 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe300…8a97backed Yes1c15,122$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4480%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x795c…2093backed No33c13,265$4,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,849.66757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf984…0a62backed No76c11,677$8,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,791.392040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-46.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes1c10,954$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.712020%4 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No63c10,658$6,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,971.8919535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6111…c9a2backed No54c10,250$5,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,732.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes37c9,862$3,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,675.4413561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes34c9,535$3,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,281.6955032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes1c9,337$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd09b…78e9backed No67c8,931$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,930.681844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15a9…677ebacked Yes1c8,862$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed No68c8,501$5,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,696.022850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a38…bfe8backed No46c7,835$3,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,256.3612431.5%39 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda18…5267backed Yes1c7,515$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…1935backed Yes1c7,295$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c6,010$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.351360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed Yes53c5,845$3,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,112.465444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No48c5,480$2,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,830.259546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f7e…ec06backed Yes16c5,165$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes27c5,138$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3886468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked No71c4,940$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.425747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes56c4,916$2,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,753.713923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes24c4,889$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.9419439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc823…a910backed No80c4,480$3,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8964100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b60…ddcabacked Yes55c4,393$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.77812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-81.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes19c4,306$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.097423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbdd…f771backed Yes1c3,791$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-82%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48a4…4dc2backed Yes31c3,779$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes28c3,552$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.775324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa210…8c13backed Yes0c3,209$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c0…cce8backed Yes1c3,209$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes37c3,100$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.237652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b12…bf0fbacked No57c3,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2806950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,848$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.011,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes29c2,843$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.341118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde75…8596backed Yes7c2,823$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.551618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7133…438abacked Yes21c2,738$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-80.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed No51c2,587$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.727949.4%39 W · 40 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No75c2,552$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.5124654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4982…0a72backed Yes22c2,509$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes32c2,500$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7902347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick26cpaid+84.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes19c2,310$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.6817229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0020…0d22backed No19c2,308$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,872.21127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf07c…63dabacked Yes2c2,222$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes41c2,205$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.065554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed No24c2,100$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.993839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc81…4eddbacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8999…1ab2backed Yes5c1,981$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe52e…8ca1backed No64c1,961$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.51656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…8cb2backed Yes21c1,905$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x821c…ffc7backed Yes41c1,881$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.53948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+126.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes41c1,794$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.385156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbebc…f88fbacked No72c1,726$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed No75c1,659$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.625971.2%42 W · 17 L+11.1wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes13c1,637$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ce…3fc6backed No35c1,580$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.31921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.22per pick43cpaid-58.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7580…cb71backed Yes27c1,569$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.76633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked No33c1,563$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.883246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4162…9619backed Yes1c1,429$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes6c1,419$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.458713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d15…7a94backed No71c1,418$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No42c1,416$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.1212736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x237f…5521backed Yes1c1,347$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2034…16dfbacked Yes3c1,335$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.851513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed Yes41c1,298$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.494845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1737…0fbabacked Yes2c1,264$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d3…06eebacked Yes46c1,204$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.392532%8 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked Yes39c1,200$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.3415754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked No56c1,166$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.535545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf8a7…818bbacked Yes1c1,059$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cda…cee7backed Yes48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe38b…8996backed Yes24c1,042$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503740.5%15 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6202…c297backed No78c1,040$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd561…9b7bbacked No58c1,034$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.483452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3503748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3600…e68bbacked Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ea…4815backed Yes9c999.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No59c919.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38011658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db9…a78bbacked No73c896.38$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked No60c883.96$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.93447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes54c883.3$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.822259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4e…c020backed Yes79c871$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cef…4ac7backed No45c861.11$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.613737.8%14 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…842fbacked No33c845$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.