TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$159,351
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,351 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb68a…c568backed Yes8c20,901$1,586 inLost-$1,586.0822216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes7c12,262$807 inLost-$806.6212431.5%39 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdd…f771backed Yes3c11,482$300 inLost-$3001612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-82%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes2c8,065$134 inLost-$134.4835123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes1c7,821$100 inLost-$100832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4993…5cc5backed Yes1c5,339$49 inLost-$49.3714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd11f…48a6backed Yes5c3,000$160 inLost-$16030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes8c2,881$230 inLost-$230.4747721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5552…b326backed Yes5c2,869$143 inLost-$143.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x837b…e8bebacked Yes6c1,667$100 inLost-$1002313%3 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2b…b404backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost-$100427.1%3 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcce8…df43backed Yes2c1,195$19 inLost-$19.042412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd74f…95cdbacked Yes1c1,142$10 inLost-$10.08140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0892…48d8backed Yes6c999.51$60 inLost-$59.98160%0 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes5c904.76$45 inLost-$45422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes4c872.42$35 inLost-$35.496311.1%7 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+519.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x091e…eef4backed Yes6c500$30 inLost-$30258%2 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc012…baa0backed Yes7c500$35 inLost-$35120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes5c457.1$23 inLost-$22.987423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff7…f491backed Yes3c334$11 inLost-$10.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713a…d636backed Yes8c190.14$14 inLost-$14.36714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-76.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes6c170.45$10 inLost-$10.2387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.