Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6451fb87bf56ff8b9728941d70389f01187a48160b63796312a97d1efeb01bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,094,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,368,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,094,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5825…da7ebacked Yes | 1c | 64,115$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.42 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x318f…d375backed Yes | 1c | 45,120$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.36 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…0494backed Yes | 2c | 32,397$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 26,692$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 79 | 2.5%2 W · 77 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -96%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 23,991$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa10a…28b1backed Yes | 1c | 21,616$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 1c | 21,351$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 1c | 18,058$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.06 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7745…1721backed Yes | 0c | 17,050$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 16,405$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e6…67b0backed Yes | 1c | 14,481$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 1c | 13,979$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4abf…f495backed Yes | 2c | 11,268$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…f771backed Yes | 2c | 10,579$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…7182backed Yes | 0c | 9,592$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…0ec1backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 1c | 6,141$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…bfcdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,763$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6f…1002backed Yes | 1c | 4,338$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…8a1dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,540$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec0…37c1backed Yes | 1c | 3,435$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee47…694bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,152$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 1c | 2,885$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f71…912dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,312$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,072$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…e346backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd861…ecccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,933$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…1eafbacked Yes | 2c | 1,875$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…e376backed Yes | 1c | 1,814$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9423…b493backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddde…8c07backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe686…13cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,655$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…c59ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,295$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd50…0795backed Yes | 1c | 1,274$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…8fe0backed Yes | 1c | 1,066$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba9…3407backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc012…baa0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf475…ee8cbacked Yes | 1c | 983.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8115…3622backed Yes | 2c | 781.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…be51backed Yes | 2c | 680.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.