Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a9edd6f008e62de8949678c76a8e3caddfecc4bab73750d97daf0bd07a358b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $521,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $518,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $521,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 2c | 50,000$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.05 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 18c | 47,830$8,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,769.42 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 5c | 26,960$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.39 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 10c | 12,003$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.2 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 5c | 11,700$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 9c | 9,806$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.32 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x318f…d375backed Yes | 7c | 9,478$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.86 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 10c | 8,495$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.51 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 12c | 7,864$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.44 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd32…c9c1backed Yes | 6c | 7,607$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.49 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 9c | 6,954$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.51 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 4c | 6,680$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 6,318$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes | 10c | 5,529$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.47 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…5452backed Yes | 3c | 5,210$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 17c | 4,555$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.76 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 14c | 4,417$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.57 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…6238backed Yes | 14c | 4,243$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 7c | 3,577$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +223.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…438abacked Yes | 10c | 3,542$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 15c | 3,522$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.87 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…b326backed Yes | 3c | 3,306$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…5cc5backed Yes | 4c | 2,477$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…accebacked Yes | 2c | 2,420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde75…8596backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e0…bd10backed Yes | 7c | 1,683$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…3774backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,499$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 3c | 1,494$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…f771backed Yes | 3c | 1,111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 140 | 75.7%106 W · 34 L | +17.6wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes | 4c | 964.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed Yes | 4c | 834.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 79c | 800$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 4c | 799.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2fd9backed Yes | 4c | 743.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e95…81d6backed Yes | 16c | 624.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e269backed Yes | 8c | 587.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 4c | 558.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a9…c093backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 4c | 461.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc184…4cc0backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…5821backed Yes | 4c | 444.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 12c | 314.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…1245backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…e19abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259a…991dbacked Yes | 11c | 225.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…6fc5backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bc…b218backed Yes | 10c | 167.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked Yes | 10c | 108.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…875bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…23a8backed Yes | 15c | 76.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…e53cbacked No | 79c | 38.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…2330backed No | 80c | 26.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.