Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e6b2abffb60063e4c6a42949bd30b91f4299491388708f459cc5d76ae6d96f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 12c | 15,618$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.33 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 4c | 7,717$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.7 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…676dbacked Yes | 3c | 7,704$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.97 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 9c | 7,017$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.11 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 12c | 6,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…5cc5backed Yes | 1c | 4,271$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 2c | 4,092$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 13c | 3,228$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.12 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 3c | 3,154$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 9c | 2,966$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.61 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,911$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,887$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 1,941$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c1…99fbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,920$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +292.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…e24fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,890$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…99b0backed Yes | 12c | 1,557$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed Yes | 2c | 1,491$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ea…4815backed Yes | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0892…48d8backed Yes | 10c | 999.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…6b70backed Yes | 2c | 988.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…ba58backed Yes | 3c | 740.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes | 7c | 708.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…16dfbacked Yes | 2c | 629.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Yes | 6c | 593.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x318f…d375backed Yes | 5c | 523.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc012…baa0backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7254…09e2backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…430cbacked Yes | 2c | 426.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 3c | 314.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.