TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$446,731
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$437,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,731 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb68a…c568backed Yes74c45,587$33,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,645.0322216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes67c24,735$16,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,136.7563835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes62c21,175$13,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,008.7387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No43c17,110$7,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,354.1124654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc932…3545backed No51c14,420$7,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,302.361866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes42c13,635$5,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,957.5311554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked No21c13,555$2,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,810.279913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes59c12,395$7,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,123.1113561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdb9b…1d68backed No20c12,222$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes44c11,588$5,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,521.8537745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f3…4c06backed No55c10,867$5,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,941.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bde…8c91backed Yes36c10,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,400.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick39cpaid+150.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6587…35d9backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4290…e2c0backed Yes63c9,915$6,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,623.318428.6%24 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3eb…8d3ebacked No58c8,621$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.181080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+48.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b98…df12backed No58c8,404$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9001163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes46c7,989$3,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,303.2347721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3863…eaa6backed No26c7,560$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.1430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed No31c7,000$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.991050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed No35c6,495$2,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,260.6719439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5999…799ebacked No13c6,435$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc91…3330backed No11c6,359$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+64.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No26c6,278$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.1712736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes65c5,515$3,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.8755032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x330d…1639backed No22c5,420$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.2570%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27b3…4575backed No65c5,198$3,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,366.71560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x841f…2726backed No28c4,801$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c14…a20abacked No58c4,488$2,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,602.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab32…1eedbacked No10c4,377$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b52…4db0backed No30c4,140$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.256053.3%32 W · 28 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes39c4,049$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,470.13312.1%4 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcde8…018ebacked No60c4,040$2,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,424922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x097e…b149backed No21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6301020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6306…852abacked No55c2,600$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4302222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x320d…ee08backed No63c2,545$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.76425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked No57c2,504$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.943154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked No58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf750…4abbbacked No44c1,700$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74611442.1%48 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes56c1,644$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.797423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0020…0d22backed No14c1,618$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.481127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa553…6236backed No62c1,531$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c7…fa37backed No12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa601…d54ebacked Yes57c1,500$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6453732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed No54c1,500$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8074845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed No15c1,457$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.885955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed No18c1,350$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.453324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6218…3db1backed No52c1,147$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes52c1,113$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.8212259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a38…bfe8backed No15c1,071$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6312431.5%39 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7479…fbecbacked No28c1,000$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2815747.4%27 W · 30 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8611…21fdbacked No59c999.99$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes46c974.66$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.665324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x936d…5c15backed No59c848.28$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbac…6fc8backed Yes59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed No34c835.47$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No54c653$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.625453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0bf…84c7backed Yes56c625.09$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.091442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c5…923dbacked No13c578.54$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.21944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5f…a92fbacked No58c520$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.61225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked No54c509$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.6615023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01d1…8c91backed No46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3998…686dbacked No40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc81…4eddbacked No60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked No64c439.77$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.455545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No21c400$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8211658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x198b…0757backed No15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bb8…71f0backed No62c375.55$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+177.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked Yes69c363$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.5615754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fc6…0d99backed No7c350.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…25e8backed Yes55c348.52$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.54650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cef…4ac7backed No33c333.33$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103737.8%14 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5f…8b16backed No67c332.97$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.091060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x821c…ffc7backed Yes79c298.28$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.643948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked No61c283.79$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.054763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e4…fd1fbacked No62c280$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0679…96f9backed No18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes79c260$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.65554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes59c254.32$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.322123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.567048.6%34 W · 36 L+13.9wins+0.20per pick29cpaid+58.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x64bd…6a4ebacked No46c217.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa969…3501backed No46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked No32c217$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.213447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa289…b412backed Yes72c212.64$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.886575.4%49 W · 16 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+19.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3cc4…3a36backed Yes37c203.6$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.6119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-75.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be6…45bbbacked Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc822…3045backed No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed No28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577537.3%28 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20b5…4bd7backed Yes60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.673458.8%20 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c7…b621backed No12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf142…02c3backed No58c148.12$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7308…c177backed Yes54c144.17$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.032330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92ab…c911backed Yes38c139.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x323d…781cbacked Yes75c136$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.653100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93f5…cba3backed No57c123.94$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-67.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb17…5d7bbacked No50c120.28$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.142441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b1c…55cabacked No18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No59c110.75$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9919535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.